To: orkrious who wrote (11324 ) 12/6/2001 11:02:48 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (2) | Respond to I don't really know, it is one of those, "on one hand, but on the other hand". On one hand, we got a massive expansion of new highs and volume with yesterday's blow out (very similar to the break near May 22nd of the 2250 to 2330 or so, which is the "other hand" of the same picture). Still on the one hand, we broke through the 1934 level that served as major support before the Autumn collapse (bullish), but the other hand of the same picture was that we did the same with 2250 in the summer. On the one hand the September 21st bottom had "everything I asked for" as a real solid bottom, but the other hand of that argument, we did not get the desired bottom retesting (yet) to form a solid foundation for the next cyclical bull market the turnips' scenario required. I have another six or seven double handed arguments that can be argued on both sides, but I will not bore you with these. That is why, right here, I'll take a Larry stand and wait for the market speech. Some bullish elements I'll be looking for will be reexpansion of volume and new highs, the percentage of NDX stocks above their 200 DMA keeping above 50% and few other tell tale signs. Some bearish signs would be failure of 2026 (first, then 1934, and the nature of the test of 1850), the appearance from "nowhere" of a day with sentiment reversal (such as a very high negative tick, -900 or more), the decline of stocks in the NDX above their 200 DMA under 40% (right now around 60%?), big divergence between tick and trin (we had a little of that today, the Naz tick finished about 400 positive, but the trin went out at 1.00, but that was not an extreme divergence, trin at 1.35 or higher while the tick is still positive would be better for the dark side). In general, however, whether we get a full retest of the September lows, I don't think you want to enter the new year on the dark side. I am rooting for a retest since then I can more safely decrease my cash position to the 25% to 15% level. Without such a retest, i fear a repeat of the "get out by January 31st at 2:15 PM (g) of this year (VBG). So right now at 62% cash, I feel a little "queazy", but not particularly worried.
