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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (151527)	12/7/2001 12:08:28 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: 27% yields - there is no credible way to refute that number. OK, but remember that Intel uses 5 times the FAB capacity to produce 3 times as many chips - which means Intel's yields are 16.2%.

To: Paul Engel who wrote (151527)	12/7/2001 10:09:29 AM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

"The numbers are out there - the math is simple. 27% yields - there is no credible way to refute that number" Sure there is. Check the CC transcripts on JC's. In Q3 of 2000, the first quarter that AMD started shipping from Dresden, AMD shipped 2.1 million Athlons. The increases in the number of Athlons shipped in successive quarters was Q400 400k Q101 700k Q201 600k Q301 about 0. Now during that time AMD ramped up Fab25 on Athlons and then ramped it down, and ramped Fab30 at a fairly constant 625 wafer starts per quarter. Assuming a linear ramp, that is 313 (or so) more wafers started in each quarter due to the Dresden ramp. At only 100 tested and packaged good die per wafer, that would imply that Dresden was only contributing around extra units per quarter. If that was the case, then Austin had to've been really churning out the processors. Another calculation is that Fab30 started their linear ramp in Q100. If you add all the wafers started, assuming a strict linear ramp, you get a total of about 15k wafers started. At 100 tested and packaged die per wafer, that is only 1.5 million processors from Fab30 since the beginning. Now they claimed to have shipped 1 million units from Dresden in August or September of last year, so it is a safe bet they get more good processors than that from each wafer. Your yield figures are wrong, face it.