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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (5033)	12/7/2001 10:16:30 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 36161

Recent warm weather in eastern US is something else, I think I'm going to have to mow my Pennsylvania lawn in December, LOL! As I indicated in previous forecasts, NOV/DEC would not be the cold ones (as always, I mean relative to normal) this season. In previous forecasts I had indicated that I expected cold cycles to increase relative to warm cycles. This has not been the case. Also I had previously noted the changeover to colder temps would be around the holidays. I used the term "onset" because I believed that change would be somewhat sudden. BTW, this pattern has been repeated before in two years that are model years for this years forecast, though they were #2 and #3 choice, not #1. We have NOT had an increase in cold cycles, but instead have been under the moderating influences of a positive NAO and a jetstream pattern that is conducive to warm temps for eastern US. What this does for my forecast is increase the chances for a sudden change to colder weather. This change will be substantial enough to catch some headlines and there is a good chance it will reach a record or near record for the disparity in temps DEC/JAN. Perhaps such a significant change folks will remember for quite awhile and certainly fodder for the weather channel. I will maintain my Dec 19 date for the most likely change, or onset, date and will add Dec 28 as the next highest probability. I told some motorcycle/snowmobile enthusiasts a week ago that they were in a "Nirvana" year, they would go right from Motorcycle weather to Snowmobile weather with little interruption between hobbies! Best of luck all, and don't sell the snowblowers yet, ggg Roebear