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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (151608)	12/7/2001 12:10:44 PM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Wanna_bmw, Re: After listening to some arguments here, I am now a little skeptical about AMD's forecasts. Some people have good points that the numbers don't add up. I have made a table to compare the last few AMD quarters: Q4 '00 Q1 '01 Q3 '01 Q4 '01 (est) Total $1,175,172,00 $1,188,747,000 $765,870,000 $902,000,000 CPG $565,000,000(1) $661,000,000 $467,000,000 $662,000,000(5) Units 7 million 7.3 million 7.7 million 8.2 million(6) ASPs $81(2) $90(2) $61(2) $81(2) Flash $456,000,000(3) $411,000,000 $210,000,000 $200,000,000(7) Other $154,000,000(4) $116,000,000(4) $89,000,000 $40,000,000(8) (1) Q1 CPG / 1.17 (2) CPG sales / units (3) Q1 flash / 0.90 (4) Total - CPG - flash (5) CPG sales better than Q1 '01 (6) record units (7) no better than flat (8) some other business closed (9) CPG + flash + other All data is from AMD's homepage (unless otherwise noted). As you can see AMD will have the best quarter in processors ever this quarter if the outlook turns out to be true. So why are they losing money? If you look at flash it declined by more than 50% and is now over $200 million less than last year. Since most of that was pure profit for AMD, they get hurt badly by the decline. The strange thing is that even with my very conservative estimates (flash down another few percents although AMD said flat, CPG only up $1 million over Q1, other down 50%) overall revenues are 18% higher than in Q3. Even with with no revenue at all from "other" revenues would be 12% higher. Either AMD is sandbagging or something is wrong with their forecast. Andreas