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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mark Adams who wrote (11691)12/7/2001 6:16:52 PM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
No question but that debt has a deflationary tendency all by itself. If someone is able to service the debt out of cash flow, no problem. If that person loses the ability to service debt out of cash flow, he/she is forced to sell off assets. It's called a "fire sale." Or maybe the debtor doesn't sell the assets, and the creditor gets a judgment and then sells the assets, e.g., foreclosure. Same difference.

Fire sales and foreclosures rarely (never?) get the fullest, best price for property. The debtor is better off selling cheap than going through legal proceedings because there are additional costs involved. But unless you are able to pull the wool over their eyes, buyers sniff out forced sales and then they stonewall until the price comes down.

Similar situations occur without the additional ratchet downward of forced sales and legal proceedings. If you are in dire straits, you can't hold out for top dollar, you have to take the first credible offer.

Therefore, (unserviceable) debt causes deflation.



To: Mark Adams who wrote (11691)12/8/2001 1:49:45 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Mark, <<Conclusion: We could hope for salvation, but we must remember that those who understand what is taking place are well positioned to avail themselves of the opportunities presented. Greater opportunity in times of greater volatility. Which puts self interest in opposition to the best interest of the whole system.

Visibility of the field is poor at best>>

I am writing on my laptop. The big machine is busy processing images of melee and blood bath communicated via the net from a game server located far away connecting combatants dispersed further still. The colorful images and distracting sounds of screaming and boasting provide me a kid intelligence embedded screen saver that doubles as entertainment as I rant.

I am in observer mode and can view the action from any player’s eye view. Daddy-Dominance is the top player at the moment, armored and armed, covered by invisibility shield, alternately using the hand-launched teleporter to teleport himself far above ground level (the floor of a house, with all the requisite rooms, furnishing, nooks and crannies, and tiny combatants the size of paper clips) and launching showers of grenades and rockets on the combatants below. Nasty.

Oops, Iceman just took him out with a lucky Shock Core Energy Rifle shot. Messy.

Ooh, Jared just got trapped in the microwave oven in the kitchen in his eagerness to pilfer the goodies within. Energizing … messier still.

Back to your subject about <<visibility>>. Despite the poor visibility, we apparently are finding plenty of hope, and remembering none of the despair. The green tribesmen are leaping out of the trenches, nostrils flaring fire, charging the red clan. Salvation will not be found where and when hoped for. What they will find is the truth described here, so very long ago, forgotten by most …

"The public preference for stock is not only as marked as ever, but also the will to speculate is still a speculative factor not to be overlooked. The prompt return of huge speculation and the liberal manner in which earnings are again being discounted indicate that it will be difficult to quench the fires of stock market enthusiasm for long." Barron's, March 24, 1930

… and so the war between the tribe and the clan continues …

Message 16076853

Change subject to game on screen. Testicle-Implosion just launched a rare nuclear-tipped-camera-guided Redeemer Rocket and settled the death match in the bathroom, on the desktop screen. These screen names of cyber warriors are a hoot. Now the taunts … “witness my perfection” … “vengeance is my witness” … “electrify you’re a$$ next round” … pelvic thrust, pelvic thrust … start of next game, scene is garage. Visitors to my den, whatever their gender or age, invariably exclaim at some point, “this is so much fun” … laughter and giggles all around, as my wife never fails to roll her eyes towards the ceiling and meanders to the wherever room.

Change subject to more bad news. The issue of financial nirvana turns on whether money invested (as opposed to speculated) can earn money. Simple … and no.

economist.com

“”NOTHING contributes so much to the prosperity and happiness of a country as high profits,” proclaimed David Ricardo, an early-19th-century economist. If so, America is in a miserable state: corporate profitability has fallen to its lowest level since the depression of the 1930s.”

and so the bad news will continue, regardless of the energy of hope by most, prayer by many, and we follow the leader of savings and credit, even while many are devoid of both, inexorably down the so very scary path to money heaven …

economist.com

“IT IS hard to keep up with all the bad news. The world economy is facing the worst downturn for nearly thirty years, and America is experiencing its first recession in a decade. For the world’s second-largest economy … in its third recession in ten years…”

The US, in its eagerness to liquefy, may end up with the worst of all worlds … inflation of service and deflation of manufacturing, without the benefit of call on savings.

The government recommended cure appears to be the same, and I do not wish to participate at all. But, first, we cry for Argentina, swoon a bit for the lockbox, and then remember to drop a tear for the Enron imitators.

news.bbc.co.uk

“"For all intents and purposes they are confiscating funds," said Scott Grannis, an emerging market fund manager of Western Asset Management in California. "They are destroying confidence," he said.”

businessweek.com
“breaking his "read-my-lips" promise on Social Security in order to pay for tax breaks for the rich ... It is certainly true that both Social Security and Medicare face large unfunded liabilities when the baby-boom population begins to retire in about 10 years.”

nytimes.com
“Here's one explanation for the rising stock market as 2001 nears an end: Some companies are locking in profits for next year by buying stocks this year.
If that sounds ridiculous, it is.

Whether pension plans will earn those returns over the long term is debatable. They did better during the late 1990's bull market. Warren E. Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (news/quote), says in the current issued of Fortune magazine that he would love to "make a large bet" that returns will be lower.

By then, the bosses making the current optimistic assumptions will have collected bonuses based on those assumptions and retired.
"It's a coming flash point in accounting," Thomas E. Jones, the vice chairman of the International Accounting Standards Board and a retired executive vice president of Citicorp (news/quote), said this week. "We're kidding ourselves" by reporting results under the American rule, he added.
… There is no good reason to report fictional profits”

Chugs, Jay