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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (57116)	12/7/2001 5:14:52 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

OT Jacob, Thanks for your usual insightful analysis. Who are the other manufactured home builders that can be considered CMH's competitors? I can see that the valuation disparity is pretty large when compared to the conventional homebuilders, a group which value manager John Neff likes, due to PEs in the 6-8 range, which he views as being punished for their excessive cyclicality of the past. Since you asked about HAL: Yes, IMHO it is too early to buy. With the smell of the rotting carcass of another Texas energy giant still in the air (ENE), some see HAL going to zero (notably Cramer). While I think the comparison is way overdone, as they are totally different industries and situations, the stench of bankruptcy is real when jury awards for asbestos litigation get out of hand. I just don't think you can pick up falling knives so quickly. Institutions tend not to disgorge all their shares on the first day of something like this. They simply can't. The time to buy IMO is when the institutions are done with their window dressing, and that will probably not occur until the end of the quarter at the earliest. That is if you really want to assume the risk of a bankruptcy filing. I'm sure George and Dick will jump on this issue to press for tort reform, but I don't know if any legislation would come quickly enough or have retroactive effect to help HAL. In short, unless you are a contrarian's contrarian, I think there are better buys out there. Sam