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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Prophet who wrote (80190)	12/8/2001 2:04:45 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi The Prophet; Some of us on the thread have noticed your change in posting style, and frankly, we're worried about you. Your posts don't show the intelligence that they once did, and your concentration on Rambus is frightening! Since August 2nd (124 days ago) you've made 73 posts to this thread and *only 5 posts to any other on SI. Did you always do that? I think there was a time when you had interests other than the bus. For instance, back on May 19, 2000, you posted six times to the SNDK thread in just that one day, and your posts were intelligent and well reasoned: (Other than your predicting that SNDK is going to earn $9.40 between July 2002 and July 2003, and that it was worth $200 per share, but that's similar to your errors on Rambus, and a lot of people were suckered into similar errors. I mean, what was PTNewell saying about Rambus earnings for 2002?) #reply-13743678 #reply-13743668 #reply-13743488 #reply-13743416 #reply-13739533 #reply-13737833 . But now your posts seem empty of hope. By way of comparison, I've posted 15 times to subjects other than Rambus in just the last week. I wouldn't be worried about the concentrated posting on Rambus if it weren't for the decline in posting quality. One of the rules of trading is to never risk more than 2% of your equity on a single trade. One of the consequences of breaking that rule is that eventually you end up in over your head on a losing trade. And amateur traders tend to hang on to their losers no matter how low they go. I commented on this tendency here: "As time goes on, stocks like this end up in the hands of mom and pop types, and those guys never sell a stock with a loss, except in two conditions: (a) They get a margin call and are forced to sell, or (b) they need the money desperately and are forced to sell." #reply-16128159 . Here's a great example of a (truthful) Rambus long giving up and hanging on to a losing position. I've bolded the parts that apply to your position and change in posting style: Re: DID WATZMAN THROW IN THE TOWEL?* Watzman, Yahoo RMBS thread #292537, May 31, 2001 No, I have not thrown in the towel. I have not sold any of my holdings, indeed I have sold my Intel and used the proceeds to buy more Rambus. My holdings are larger than they have ever been. It's true that I am not posting as much. I'll acknowledge that events of the last 30 days have "worn me down", and I'm less certain of my position than I used to be. ... When this is over, I may be broke, or I may be a multi-millionaire. But whatever the outcome, people will be saying "you know, that Job guy almost had the patience of Watzman". [Or is it the supidity and stubbornness of Watzman, sometimes I'm not sure I can tell the difference]. #reply-15879170 You're not posting as much as you used to, and your posting has concentrated down to just Rambus. We're figuring that you pulled a "Watzman". You don't have any money left in the market other than Rambus because that was all the money you had, and you're too far in the red to admit that you made a mistake. You need to talk to a financial counselor. Remember, what is it that lawyers say about the person who gives himself advice in legal matters? You need a dispassionate professional to get you out of the hole you've dug yourself into. It's not going to get better. Set up an appointment on Monday and get it over with, you'll feel a lot better. This is not a matter of you being "stupid", it's just a matter of human nature. You'll have another chance to make that money back (but not in the tech stock market), and you won't be able to start making that money back until you say goodbye to the problems you've already created. -- Carl P.S. Next time you make a trade, think how easy it will be to cut your losses when you only have 2% of your equity riding on the trade! No, trading carefully won't make you wealthy over night, but it will prevent you from killing yourself in the market, and the professionals who survive over the long run play that way for a reason. Here's a great text book on the notion: shop.barnesandnoble.com P.S.S. Ooops on counting the days since July 26th! I left off July, so all my figures need to have 31 days added. But the point remains. RDRAM has dropped substantially since I posted that it was likely to drop to a 50% premium around the end of the year or the 1Q02. But we haven't even reached the end of the year yet, much less the end of 1Q02.