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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (11697)	12/7/2001 10:45:09 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I do expect a great deal more hunkering down by people with less disposable income, ie less frivolous spending I got to thinking that the 100B ENE thing might better be characterized as a series of small amounts with impact spread over decades, rather than a 'one time charge' to this year to GDP. This, as those who've lost directly via 401k and indirectly via mutual fund losses in 401k funds will likely adapt future spending over a period of years. Whereas the the debt and derivative aspects will be written off in months, lowering income for a wide variety of companies and shareholders. So maybe I make much ado about nothing. I claimed the bursting of the Nasdeq bubble would have less impact than expected, as people hadn't had enough time to internalize the unrecognized gains from late 99/early 00. ENE, while of much smaller magnitude, would appear to be well established in the minds of those who were exposed in one fashion or another to its demise. What I have to wonder, is what the outcome might be if another larger equity/debt corporate entity called it quits in the near term future- say Ford. LTV/BS and a good part of the steel industry appear to be calling for federal help with the support of past retirees. They might be profitible, if not for the subsidized imports and the burden of past, union negotiated, benefit packages. <ng> It's quite possible that additional corporate fallout could create some serious damage to consumers not prepared. Everywhere I look, paper, steel, aluminum, copper, dram- I see efforts by manufactures to support profitibility by constraining production. Excess capacity. That's a game well heeled corporate types are supposed to be able to win, by being one of the lower cost producers, and taking share from the high cost guys during downturns in demand. Yet that doesn't seem to be how things are playing out in the real world.