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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (11703)	12/8/2001 6:34:37 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Back in the 80s in Africa I had my weekly dose of something to read and think about: The issue of The Economist. Now your postings have replaced that. Thanks for you reply, Jay. I -for the last two weeks- tried, (in vain to go to The Economist site and have an good overview of what is going on: Argentina and this spike in the stock market. They have not explained to my satisfaction as they used to. ARGENTINA/TURKEY: The problem is not as much the lousy economic policies. It is a lesson on how the nation-state is with one foot in the grave another in the banana peel and the center of gravity is shifting into that foot that is in the grave. THE NOVEMBER BOOMLET: As long as CSCO John Chambers, Siemens von Pierer, ERICY Hellmstrom and NOK Ollila were saying there wasn't any visibility, no one went to the market. As soon as -pressed by the end of the commercial year to say something, anything, finally they started saying they were seeing something: people went back to the market and bought. Hence the boomlet. It will fizzle by first week of February. THE SEASONS: The seasons' sales are forced fed. It would be a bad cocktail: post NY tragedy, a war of some sort going on and a gloomy Xmas season. the third week of Jan and the first and second weeks of February need to be watched with care. THE ABRACADABRAS: Abracadabras -like earthquakes- are unstoppable. The longer the plates build force the higher the energy release will be, Jay. The ones that will be left standing after the shake down, are not the ones that have raised themselves in the last Abracadabra. They know that. It wasn't RCA or Burroughs who raised. It was Dell and Compaq. Extend this for today's environment, and you will feel what the NOK and CSCO of this world are feeling.