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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (11705)	12/8/2001 3:39:31 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Up 1% YTD :) OK that's in Aussie Dollars...

To: TobagoJack who wrote (11705)	12/8/2001 10:16:24 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Fiction of dollar parity in Argentina is gone. 40% up in the black market. 1 dollar = 1.40 Peso

To: TobagoJack who wrote (11705)	12/11/2001 9:29:08 AM
From: pezz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<<Equity investment has for the most part, in the aggregate, been dead money for the year, per Collapse script.>> Well you may or may not be right about that. A little known fact is that the "Bubble" year of 1999 showed more losers than winners on the NASDAQ. A year in which I lost heavily BTW. I ain't sure what the tally will be at the end of 2001 but for me recent gains have been so strong that I am becoming forced to sell some winners early [ 2001 as opposed to 2002 ]thus creating an ugly scenario for my 2002 tax quarterlies. The bear case as stated seems to be logical and even inevitable. But things don't always seem to follow the script no matter how obvious it may be. Most of my working life has been in the construction biz [ remodels ].I have found an interesting parallel between that and stocks. When removing a "bearing" wall, that is one which is supporting a load [ceiling ,second floor joists or roof rafters ] the time honored and obvious method is to first build temporary supports least the bearing surface collapses when wall is removed ....After all "wall holds up ceiling remove wall ceiling collapses" ....No?...............Well, not always...Drywall , plaster ,joist nailing ,top plates some times glue things together till a permanent support can be built. Thus creating a short cut to completing the job. Some years ago when this country wuz running ever increasing deficits thus increasing the percentage of the budget used to finance these deficits and mucho dollars were going over seas in the form of debt. Larger interest payments to finance the deficit thus larger deficit etc. It appeared that an irreversible spiral wuz occurring. When this debt got too high in relation to the government's ability to pay....collapse... Thus I made a bet with a friend that sooner or later the government would default on the national debt........."remove bearing wall, ceiling collapses" seemed to make sense to me...........NOT!... It appears that often long predicted disasters have a way of postponing themselves, sometimes indefinitely or at least until a solution can be found...as various glues hold things together. Predicted Y2K disaster comes to mind. Collapsing bubbles,poor earnings,recession ...and yet the glue of AG's liquidity holds the market together till a more permanent support structure can be built. So once again I say to you "enjoy, enjoy, don worry be happy" I certainly am.