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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (49379)	12/8/2001 8:52:36 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Do you think that the cyclical nature of Intel, Microsoft, Oracle, Cisco, Siebel, etc... would present a sustained opportunity to purchase at a P/E of 17 in the current environment? do you think the cyclical nature of Intel will prevent it from ever selling at less than eight times sales? You should have been snatching up the homebuilders in October more data-mining. you might as well say, "you should have been purchasing Enron at 26 cents and tripled your money in a week". you can say anything you want after the fact, but it proves nothing about what to do ex ante.

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (49379)	12/8/2001 12:29:45 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I know we are straying a bit off topic to discuss homebuilders & golf clubs, but yes - they looked attractive at least in the short term. Same with many other sectors that I do not understand. Such is the case with the breadth of the market. Returning to the subject of the thread, you asked: Do you think that the cyclical nature of Intel, Microsoft, Oracle, Cisco, Siebel, etc... would present a sustained opportunity to purchase at a P/E of 17 in the current environment? Parsing the logic, no I don't think there will be a sustained opportunity to purchase these at a PE of 17 in the current environment. But for example, with Cisco price to earnings in three digits (pro-forma, no less), there's indication of considerable room to wiggle. I don't need a sustained opportunity. Just one brief enough on which to capitalize. John P.S. I'm not "anti Gorilla" so much as "anti getting fleeced". These are great companies. The price of which has been driven up to even greater levels IMHO. I gather you don't share this opinion. P.P.S What kind of multiple do you think is proper for a cyclical company at its peak? At its trough? When do you think MSFT, ORCL, CSCO and SEBL will put in their next cyclical peaks?