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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (11711)	12/8/2001 10:18:38 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Part of Bush's $100 Billion cash injection in the US economy post tragedy is ending up in Brazil. Yes, cars are being sold interest free. Brazil's gov is not being hard pressed to dump at whatever price its last state-owned assets.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (11711)	12/9/2001 12:10:27 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 74559

Just a short term guess. Up and up until January 31st, then pssssst into August, progressively accelerating and increasingly more violent as we notice that there is not a corner in sight. Your plan sounds suspiciously like the one I am secretly thinking:0) and so let's collaborate. The upside and turning point is based on several pieces of technical evidence, and a general economci scenario of a 1980-82 style double dip recession with the second hit being the worse. Technical evidence: 1. Elliott-Wave - seem to be only mid-way in this upwave which I expect to have 5 subwaves - overall we are in the correction (wave B) to the crash. The correction started in the March-April bottom (based on other TA evidence) and is taking the form of an expanding flat - up first to May (wave a) down to a new low in Sep (wave b) and up to a high above May's level (wave c) in Jan? Feb?. Then commences the final major leg of the bear-market down (wave C).... 2. Bollinger Bands etc. Usually when a move crosses the middle of the BBs it tends to go the whole way across to the opposite band. Take a look at some monthly or so charts of the NASDAQ indices: siliconinvestor.com 3. McClellan Summation index - has plenty of room to continue to the upside if necessary: stockcharts.com Just about to exceed the May peak level. 4. My own TA system (using time series analysis) shows no sign of a peak being reached yet on either weekly or monthly scales. Low interest rates certainly provide some fundamental rationale for the rally, but when the Fed runs out of string and other news (layoffs in particular) get no better.... I'm selling options (naked puts and covered calls) on News Corporation since September. The stock tracks the NDX index pretty well for some reason and is highly liquid by Australian standards also has monthly contracts unlike most smaller capitalization Aussie stocks which are only quarterly, no (actually tiny) dividends to worry about, high implicit volatility. I intend to use it to short too when necessary. Last month I also ventured back into long QQQ calls and that has also paid off well so far.... Trash stocks to dump at the peak perhaps include Looksmart and Telecom NZ and one international mutual fund I have. I am familiar with the HIH story (Enron down-under is right) and was in their HK regional HQ Swiss leader’s office when he made decision over the phone to do a large speculation in Korea Online the year before. They made investments the way I used to accept a beer when a University student, That dude, Rudolph Wein, became the second and last CEO of HIH in December last year. I am off to second party of the season Off to Sydney again on Monday. Will attend a 3 hour presentation/seminar on career paths/entry to the "Securities Industry". David