Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex MG who wrote (11634)	12/8/2001 10:28:13 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99280

From that mock interview you posted: Trading Desk: I would bet the liquidity will dry up the closer we get to the end of the year, so if you want back into the game, we better do it soon. Fund Manager: We can worry about the fundamentals next year. Let's get back to at least a market weighting in tech because we obviously sold too much on the way down. My question would be--why would a fund then go under weight technology afterwards? Considering the risk even in other stocks--energy stocks are blowing up--these were supposed to be safe; there are many with asbestos liabilities. Why not be holding tech companies that just emerged in the last 10 to 12 years. That could be a motive to make sure they stay at least market weight in technology. The reality is that too many of the big funds have sold out of tech in a big way; for them to just get to market weight will require a lot of buying...but I can't see that many sellers materializing in the near term. To me this means December should stay on a upward momentum and January could have a decline (unknown magnitude--maybe even starting late December). That decline may not be large if funds are unable to buy enough tech in the last quarter of 2001. In late 1999, every big fund seemed to be over invested in tech and now it is totally the opposite. That is enough to make one bullish at least until their tech exposures increase and/or until the Nasdaq short interest declines. Considering the boom and bust cycles we have seen in the past couple of years in technology and even energy, it makes sense for a fund to keep a market weighting...maybe just for their survival; to deviate too far from market weighting and they risking their business unnecessarily. Just look at what Janus went through by being concentrated in technology. I can't see that many funds big chances like this again---unless of course they are sector funds and have no choice but that puts them in another category. Fund behavior is going to be the key to the market in the coming months. To me it supports the bull case in the near term...my guess. It is very hard to figure out. I am bit more nervous of December than I was last week but still holding on to my positions. Will sell some into a near term rally that I hope is still out there. JMHO

To: Alex MG who wrote (11634)	12/9/2001 5:06:26 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99280

Propping up the Market: There is some evidence that the investment community tries, and often succeeds, in pushing stocks up near the end of a quarter or year, if a 0 or +1% return is seen as doable. With the DJIA getting within striking distance of a 0% return for 2001, they may pull out all the stops. Of course, even if they succeed, most investors will still have a loss for 2002, but a neutral or slightly + Dow would still be a feather in their cap. If this happens, there would be a sell-off beginning somewhere near Jan 1st, as the artificial support is removed.