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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (1390)	12/9/2001 6:19:24 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95360

Scott, As usual, you come up with good observations and questions. You have pointed out one very important point, ie, the fiscal year is not the same for all companies(in general, companies within the group have fiscal years that end at different months throughout the year. Most of the fiscal years, however, do correspond to the calendar year). As such, I don't pay too much attention to the individual stocks within the group, but I do look closely at the sum of earnings for the group and how they change on a weekly basis. Ignoring for the moment the ending of the fiscal year for each of the companies, 18 of the 29 companies in the list have had substantial reductions in "next year" earnings during the past 11 weeks. During those same 11 weeks, the group gain in price has been 60 percent. During the last several weeks there has been a tendency for next year earnings to begin "turning around". Since most of the fiscal years, 13 of 29, end on Dec 31, I would expect a significant change in the table during the first quarter of next year as the present earnings estimates for "next year", "rollover" to "this year" earnings, and new "next year"(CY-2003) earnings are established. You have outlined a very valid concern - comparing individual companies within the group is quite difficult, and great care must be taken, if the FY years do not coincide. I think the value of the data is primarily in looking at the group prediction on a "running" weekly basis. As shown in a few recent posts, that data can be plotted in a relatively smooth curve showing group direction. Don