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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (10603)	12/10/2001 1:22:20 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

MG, Definitely been a brutal time for Buy & Hold. Of the 76 Big Boyz, 39 are negative since 12/31/98 and 51 are negative since 12/31/99. Interesting that the it looks as though the eps for them are going to come in at about the same $1.26 median that they earned in 1998 with the SnP at -2% since 12/31/98. I don't see any possible year/year improvement in eps until 0206, and this assumes the consumer doesn't give up. EPS estimates by the ANAL-ysts were 38% overstated going into the 0106 quarter and 24% overstated going into the 0109 quarter. It appears that the funny money numbers that they use are currently 27% overstated for this year. Since September, they have reduced their funny money numbers by 4% for the current year and 11% for next year. I figure that their funny money numbers are overstating next year's eps by about 24%. The current PE based on the TTM is 31.6. To put this in perspective, the median PE for 98 was 28.9 and the average for 1993-2000 was 22.9. Doesn't look good. In looking at about 33 of the 2000 annual reports of the Big Boyz that had defined benefit pension plans, the average expected return on their plan assets was projected at ~9.5%. Looks like the potential for some real damage to eps in this area. As they lower those forecasts, earnings are going to take a big hit. Been looking at REIT's and about finished with an analysis. The trigger for this analysis was an announcement by the SnP on 10/03 that would include REIT's in their indexes in the future. I believe that there are now 3 in the SnP500, and 2 each in the SnP400 and SnP600. The power is in the growth of the dividend yield based upon the original purchase price. I got a position in VZ based upon the same criteria you saw in SBC. However, I believe the telecoms will have to wait for the tax loss selling to abate before the next move. Who knows? Just a View from the Swamp TB