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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (57140)	12/9/2001 11:04:20 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I am probably a lot more of a risk taker than most folks, even in the technology space. Being single is part of it I guess (only affects me if I do poorly), plus I plan to keep on working regardless of how I do, and I enjoy my job as an engineer, so I feel secure with that as a sort of backup plan. Lastly, I am motivated to try to recover as best I can, and if I was in your situation, I would probably have the same approach. I realize this kind of thinking can be a bit dangerous, but hopefully it will turn out ok. I am prepared at any rate to deal with the consequences, and just wait it out or whatever. I would like to use the best approach though, and I appreciate your inputs. I was thinking of aggressively buying Amat leaps during those down days in September. I wish I did, but somehow I thought that was more risky than the basket of small caps I picked up. I guess the thought of those Leaps possibly expiring worthless was a bit scary. I am, however, really impressed by the big move Tito made with Amat leaps several years ago. Regarding Juniper, I don't think those other rivals of Cisco ever gained share on Cisco. Is it possible that JNPR is the gorilla in the router space? I am not sure, and wish I could evaluate the technology better. Cisco can outspend JNPR, but sometimes the big companies can't motivate their team to perform like that of a smaller, focused company. One example of that I think is IBM trying to fight back at little Microsoft in the early to mid 90's with their OS-2 operating system. IBM had way more cash, etc., but MSFT still beat them. That may not be the best analogy, but I am impressed at any rate that JNPR has taken so much market share away from Cisco, and also that JNPR has had only minimal impact to earnings during this most severe downturn. I think the stock dived more because it was much more overvalued, but the percentage drop in earnings during this downturn was much greater for Cisco. I agree about the volatility part. And I still think your arguments may be right overall, but I am sticking with JNPR for now. I will have to think about this some more. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. John

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (57140)	12/10/2001 7:44:23 AM
From: mirada	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

OT Re Juniper Are you using Long term criteria to make a short term move? How long do plan to hold your short? If you are going short JNPR now at this range because of CSCO. IMHO it's going to be a LONG LONG time before the result of your thesis play out. JNPR is, as your aware, a great momo stock with a lot of bias to the upside when the market trend is up. Also, SOX just have a tremendous run, there has to be a rotation out of Semi into something and JNPR looks good to be one to be rotated into. Just my two cents.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (57140)	12/10/2001 10:25:03 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I own CSCO stock, but no JNPR. I think you are making a big mistake. CSCO has beaten other competitors, but none has threatened the crown jewel router business the way JNPR has. I believe that JNPR has better router technology. CSCO is the gorilla and will do well. JNPR has the better technology and will do well. I own AMAT and NVLS. I believe that there are parallels here to the CSCO/JNPR situation. AMAT is the gorilla and will do very well. NVLS has a history of bringing more advanced technology to market before AMAT does and of being the most profitable in the industry during downturns. I believe NVLS will do well. In conclusion: your strategy is good because both CSCO/AMAT and JNPR/NVLS will move with the market, so you get a hedge. You will get more volatility with JNPR/NVLS, but their movement will not be influenced by business shortcomings. All IMHO!