Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stoctrash who wrote (5240)	12/9/2001 9:41:43 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 33421

Actually, what's "new" is that "nothing's new" in Japan. Except that IBD came out and officially confirmed that Japan's national debt now equates to 130% of annual GDP there. Eventually, imo, Japan will be forced to monetize it's debt by devaluing the Yen. There has already been discussion of an induced inflation by devaluing some 5% per annum, but that will prove ineffective, I would opine. Japan needs a shock to it's system to create the conditions where capital feels it can make a return, and consumers are forced to spend those $12 trillion in savings they have accumulated. And such a devaluation will have to be drastic, and accomplished over a relatively short term so the Japanese economy can adjust to the new reality. Either that, or the Japanese economy will have to contract by the same percentage as it's demographics dictate. 1 in 4 Japanese will be over 60 within 5-10 years. Unfortunately, a devaluation will force an initial outpouring of Japanese savings. Either that, or political unrest will result which could topple the government (and not just the prime minister, but also the major ruling parties). Hawk