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To: qgambit who wrote (151888)12/10/2001 2:00:33 PM
From: Tony Viola  Respond to of 186894
 
The worst scenario for Intel is only one huge behemoth selling itanium system.

I don't think one behemoth is in the realm of possibilities with IBM, Dell and HP/Compaq around. There are also the big Japanese companies Fujitsu, Hitachi and NEC. OTOH, HP and Compaq seem to think they really need to merge for either to remain competitive with Dell, and IBM also I suppose. Dan Niles and some others think Compaq would be OK staying single. I read last week that Compaq is getting closer to Dell's sell direct model. If they pull that off before Dell gets too much further ahead, I think, with their superior R&D, they should survive OK. HP probably the same, but there probably are too many different available labels for Intel based servers, and flavors of proprietary Unix (Tru64, VMS, HPUX, AIX, not to mention Solaris). I guess the labels and flavors problem is what HP and Compaq are looking at. So I guess they'll push for the merger but whether it goes through or not is way up in the air. The longer things stay that way, the more Dell must like it.

My guess is it'll end up three big US guys, like in autos, IBM, Dell and HP.

Tony