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Pastimes : The Cosmic Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane3 who wrote (583)	12/11/2001 12:03:10 AM
From: cosmicforce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 667

The concept the is the same with every definition. A working hypothesis is neither valid nor invalid in any absolute sense until the proposition stands the test of time. Most people assume the U.S. is a model for the future. That is a good short term bet, however, the long term prospects for the U.S. or any other power to hold dominion for more than a few hundred years is unprecedented in modern times. We are a 3 or 4 sigma deviation from the median. As an example, let's start with the common opinion that 'the U.S. dollar represents a good exchange medium'. How valid this is (or cogent, even) depends a lot on your assumptions. Many of these assumptions will stand the test of time, many won't. So, if you were to be suddenly be granted immortal status and wanted investment advice, I'd have to say U.S. dollars would NOT be an ideal investment for you because over the long haul, it is probably unsustainable. Real estate, shipping, trading and gold reserves probably represent the ideal MEDIAN investments for the last 10,000 years. So, as your investment consultant, I'd say to the immortal you: "Don't invest too heavily in any national currency, especially one without hard backing." because the historical precedent for it working out in the long run is very poor. The tradition of mercantilism and hard currency is a better bet if you expect to live 10,000 years than one base entirely upon U.S. currency. Of course, if you choose to own land, you need to make sure you have a credible ability to defend that land from others who would take it. And the same is true of gold and your shipping business. I'd have you bury some of the gold (preferrably in multiple locations) and your ships should have considerable ability to repel pirates.