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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (1173)	12/11/2001 11:26:51 PM
From: MSI	Respond to of 306849

As usual, the biggest fall in prices will be where the fastest increases occured of up to 40% in two years, in SF and Silicon Valley, where job declines have hit also. In more moderate areas owner-occupied home is pretty bulletproof investment, if you include tax benefits, unless its a mansion, of course... you're better off renting one of those. A friend is renting one for $2,500/mo. in Los Gatos, which covers taxes & insurance, leaving negative imputed cost to the landlord of maybe $10k/mo., not including market value loss this year. If there's a "meltdown", like early 80's stagflation -- it'll be ugly but IMO won't last longer than a year for moderate real estate. Unlike the 80's we've got Greenspan's at the wheel, instead of Volker. In Northern Calif the population pressure won't go away. The hundreds of billions out of Washington will wash over to defense and tech, once again, eventually. If you want a mansion? Better to build it yourself, or wait for forclosures sometime next year...