Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (5240)	12/12/2001 5:30:43 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Hi heinz, Welcome to the Strictly Drilling II thread:) Frank, Iso, Slider, George, Paul Shread, Roebear & others, have kept the blinkers off so they, (& by extension we lurkers), could see the negative long term picture that is developing in the economy. so i remain a medium to long term bear on the market for now. it will take a long time to balance the excesses of the 90's bubbles, and the Fed's total rate cutting panic underscores how enormously serious the situation is. this is NOT, most emphatically not, your garden variety post WW2 recession. Again welcome to SDII Regards, Peter

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (5240)	12/12/2001 5:41:26 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Heinz: I am not a bearish as you, but I do expect a correction that will retrace about half the gains from the lows. The most bullish thing this market has going for it short-term IMHO is its ability to rebound repeatedly in late trading from early selloffs as happened yet again today. Until this pattern of late strength is broken, I find it hard to envision the market dropping to any appreciable extent.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (5240)	12/12/2001 5:50:04 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Heinz, Dynamic hedging replaced portfolio insurance which replaced neutral hedging. Gee, I wonder why they were replaced? <VBG>

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (5240)	12/12/2001 7:18:17 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Not familiar with you posts, Heinz. But from the looks of that one? It's possible we've been working independently on the same global macro economic thesis for some time! My own stance - till Sept - was to give inflation the benefit of the doubt. But the fallout from Sept 11th was the final nail in the coffin for that. Later in Sept posted the 1st of my deflation thinking here and on the SA II thread: <MO a deflationary war scenario has changed everything. Vast over extension of credit during the Clinton/Rubin/Greenpump bubble created an unstable house of cards economy built on too much debt. We know the contraction to correct of those distortions and misallocation of capital was already taking us into a cyclical recession. But the colossal hammer blow of 9/11 changed everything. Let's take a look inside FDR's classic insight, "The only thing we have to fear is....fear itself." What was looking like a somewhat more severe than average post WWII global recession has suffered a huge injection of fear and the impact IMO will be economically devastating. Fear is the catalyst that's accelerating a normal recession ala 1981-1 or 1973-74 into a classic deflation, more akin to the 1930s. Up until 9/11 I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt to inflation. But that has all changed now. Fear of flying. Fear of job loss. The list goes on and on. Fear, as FDR clearly understood, immobilizes people and the economy along with it. This the catalyst that has transformed a stiff but normal cyclical recession into a K-wave bringing our debt ridden house of cards economy crashing down as travelers stop flying, consumers stop buying and industry after industry shows a quantum leap in layoffs. Sure there WILL be a bounce back and some good market rallies during the next year. But IMO we are in a LT global slow growth environment as huge amounts of capital that would otherwise go into productive economic growth must instead be deployed to protect what we have and more importantly our lives. Responding to this terror is going to be a huge LT drain as we funnel 100s of billions of $ into domestic security measures for our cities, airlines, power plants, reservoirs, pipelines, refineries, storage tank farms, yada yada..... In other words the cost of protecting our physical plant, infrastructure and population centers will be the economic growth that's characterized the post WWII period. Hence my conclusion that we face, at best, years of slow global growth. Gold is the strongest beneficiary of the kind of deflation that IMO has now taken control. Greenpumpster is aggressively debasing the dollar and other major CBs will follow in a desperate attempt to fight these deflationary conditions. So what we get is a repeat of the competitive devaluations that characterized the 1930s with gold increasing relative to all major currencies. Other than the sm part of portfolio in energy to hedge against the eventuality of a ME supply cut off, am staying away from all other commodities till the market is finished discounting this new deflationary environment that's been thrust upon us. It's not even close to doing that yet, IMHO. Elvis Rules<g> Isopatch> Message 16418826 Perhaps we can find some time to brain storm from past posts and/or recent ideas about what specifics will slowly surface going forward to flesh out the details of the - real - new era, dominated by deflationary themes. The 1930s are a good place to start. Our core group of posters has discussed same a number of times in recent months. So anything you'd like to add is appreciated. Welcome to our thread. Just be warned, we aren't always super serious around here. It's only money, after all. You can't take it with you. Best regards, Isopatch P.S. BTW, Elvis (aka "The King Gold Dog"<g>) is my Golden Retriever. We appointed him thread mascot for the emerging bull mkt in Gold about 8 months ago.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (5240)	12/13/2001 4:22:54 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

an excellent post Heinz and i attach to your post a response to those that have responded with a "it isn't going to be that bad attitude" to your post:) My response--well i will throw in my counter opinion,and say we see new lows in the spring coming off this idiots' rally that could last through January.Then we get another run up and then we will see(Roach of MSDW anticipates a GDP fake-out mid-year due to inventory adjustments that will fuel another false rally).And i quote what Laszlo Birinyi(the inventor of MoneyFlow,by the way,and a hard-core pragmatist that is presently long the market) said yesterday on Bloomberg TV(because i agree with it:).And that is he sees the next 10years as a swing traders market and in that 10years LTBH investors will be going nowhere--just 10 wasted,if not disastrous years.Max