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Strategies & Market Trends : Paint The Table -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (6236)	12/13/2001 12:25:17 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 23786

LOL, I agree that you really have to understand what the ADX formula is trying to do as well as the DM stuff. I posted those Charts to Chip on the Market Lab thread and mentioned a few possible interpretations. It would be easier to understand those indicators if I had only 1 per chart. That combination is what is used on ESignal, that's what got me interested in it. Message 16782121 I'll reprint the interps here, and I also see a few bearish interpretations. Hey the SPX and DJIA rallied right to their 200 dma's which is textbook and that is the place to short, with the idea to cover on a break back above the 200 dma. here's what I said.. johnpsmarketlab.netfirms.com. (these are big charts and to see them all on one screen resize your browser to 1280 x 1024 pixels or 1152 x 864 pixels. go to an empty part of your desktop and right click, select Properties and then Settings) on the first 2 year chart of the SPX the red ADX line reached a bottoming area on the study window above the chart that had previously given us tops in price in the SPX, but this time the market has continued to rally for a number of weeks. This suggests that we could have a bullish momentum quality, that has been absent since the March 2000 top. On the second SPX chart which is a 4 year chart, we can see that the blue study line which is the directional - (minus directional movement-- the ease of movement is down in price) reached the highest level since the near bear market of July 20th to oct 5th of 1998. the study at least suggests that the 9-21-01 low is related to or more like the 1998 low. EDIT( not saying that we have to be starting a major new multiyear bull) the Blue Directional - line shows how powerful the selling pressure is and just as in the momentum study of cycles, Panic Lows are more pronounced and focused, than market tops. Panic Lows are more focused than greedy Topping action which can a diffusive multiple top quality. the NASD chart shows that this Bearish Blue Directional Minus oscillator reaches the highest level since the 4-14-00 low in the NASD. That Low was imo the most panicky of the 2000 bottoms we experienced. So the April 2000 low might bookend with the 9-21-01 low, and represent either a complete bear market or the first part of a longer secular bear market, in which case it would be represented in Elliott Terms as the A wave decline, that lasted 17 months. Thus we would be in a B wave rally that could last for a .618 multiple of 11 months or a 50% time multiple of 8 to 9 months. I'm doing some further examination of the longer term charts, momentum studies etc.