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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (57306)	12/12/2001 10:29:50 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I currently believe there will be one more trip down before AMAT begins the long road back up Just one, AD? How convenient that will be for you before you exchange your bear suit for that of a beast which properly wears horns, Mr. Devil. I am absolutely sure that there will be many trips up and down in the near future. I just need someone to let me know when. You have shown great promise from the short side, the current move notwithstanding. I just hope you try on the bull suit for possible alterations before wearing it to the ball. <g> Sam

To: advocatedevil who wrote (57306)	12/13/2001 12:36:38 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

re: I currently believe there will be one more trip down before AMAT begins the long road back up I think so, too. AMAT cutting jobs, and what NVLS recently said, indicates it's going to be 6 months, perhaps longer, before bookings turn up. We may be at a bottom in bookings now, but we are not yet at an upturn. There is still time to short, and play short-term games, at least several more months. If AMAT hits 50, I will either sell, or hedge completely with NVLS puts. Disclosure: in late 1998, after a big runup in the AMAT LT calls I had bought at the bottom, I hedged with NVLS puts. They (the puts) were useful, later, for reducing my taxes. The mistake I made then, was looking at the valuation, and not realizing that the upturn in bookings was giving the sector so much momentum, that the stocks would stay overvalued, for a long, long time. This time, the turn in bookings hasn't happened, but the stocks are valued as if we've seen the turn. ----------------------- And, yes, Sam, those were excellent comments.