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To: mishedlo who wrote (138418)	12/13/2001 12:40:03 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 436258

BernieSchaeffer and the Bear Mkt. by: NYC_OPINION Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Sell 12/12/01 11:52 pm Msg: 128175 of 128177 WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET, PERIOD. Please ignore the utter foolishness you've seen recently in the financial media about how a 20-percent rally off the bottom pushes the market into "bull territory." This is flat-out meaningless! How do you identify a bear market? (1)Ignore the price-weighted Dow. Can the Dow be manipulated? Is the top banana at the Fed named Greenspan? 11 rate cuts this year...hmmmm. (2) Look at the S&P 500 (SPX - 1127) relative to key long-term technicals. The S&P 500 spent the entire decade of the 1990s above its 40-month moving average on a monthly closing basis. But now, November 2001 has marked the 10th consecutive month in which the S&P closed below its 40-month moving average. And as of today's close the S&P will be about 14% below this trendline. Bear market? No doubt. (3) Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute was one of the very few economists to predict the current recession. He reports that while three of his leading indicators for a recovery are now positive, eight remain negative. So much for the fundamentals leading to bullishness. (4) Hopeful investor sentiment remains the key component behind this non-bearish market talk. One major characteristic of a bear market bottom is a sense of utter hopelessness and despair among investors. But when Wall Street strategists are currently recommending a near-record 70% allocation to stocks; they are emotionally invested and too hopeful. Nor do global fund managers reflect despair. In a recent Merrill Lynch survey of global fund managers, 85% were feeling bullish on stocks for the coming year. And the individual investor? The Motley Fool reported on December 3 that "80% of our readers think it is currently a very good or good time to invest [and] 83% think the stock market will be higher a year from now." So there you have it. Bearish technicals, bearish fundamentals, and hopeful sentiment. This is a recipe for the termination of a bear-market rally, not the termination of a bear market. messages.yahoo.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (138418)	12/13/2001 12:59:49 AM
From: At_The_Ask	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I don't know what to think of it either. Put buyers are supposed to be dumb historically -g-. But they have been right on so far. Keeping interest low. Earnings disapearing for AWRE. $2.57 in cash though. 18.7% short interest. That oughta be good for some laughs. What r your thoughts on it?