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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mannie who wrote (45090)	12/13/2001 1:49:22 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Scott: As usual you're asking good questions... Unfortunately, I don't have all the answers...Yet, my gut feeling about where the market is going is based on reading a lot, talking to friends in large tech firms, talking with some CIOs and others I know who help make tech buying decisions, and talking with some friends who are working for I-Banks and Hedge Funds....It's clear that the easy money has already been made...Look at the run stocks like ARBA & BRCD have had off their lows in the last 6-8 weeks....Timing is everything and I still have a lot to learn...=) Here's what The John Hancock Technology Fund Manager had to say about the Nasdaq and some specific stocks... moneycentral.msn.com <<...Marc Klee is focusing on companies that are most leveraged to an economic upturn. The portfolio manager of the John Hancock Technology Fund (JHTCX, news, msgs) says those include stocks in the semiconductor, software and contract outsourcing sectors. Since Sept. 20 and 21, the average tech stock has risen 45%. Is it overdone? Klee, a guest on CNBC's Street Signs Wednesday afternoon, says, "Yes and no. ... The market has moved very quickly, very fast and the easy money has been made." That doesn't mean it's over, however. Klee predicts that by next fall, the Nasdaq will hit 2500. "Tech will not only be an outperforming sector, but it will do well over the next 12 to 18 months," he says. He adds one caveat on the sector: "It will, however, slow down considerably." In other words, Klee says tech stocks won't see the kind of growth they saw in the last bull market...>> ______________________________________ IMHO, it's a stockpicker's market -- examine the sectors, invest in the best stocks AND be disciplined about booking profits...Good luck with your investing decisions and I hope to see you on a trip out to Seattle sometime. Regards, Scott

To: Mannie who wrote (45090)	12/13/2001 2:54:26 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

A 'V-Shaped Recovery' Predicted By One Of The Top Fund Managers... thestreet.com <<...Bill Miller, manager of the Legg Mason Value Trust fund, is about to become the only active fund manager to top the S&P 500 11 years running. At a Thursday press briefing he laid out his vision of how the next year will play out for investors. "Our view is that we'll get a V-shaped recovery," Miller told a room full of reporters over lunch in midtown Manhattan. Miller believes tech, telecom and financial services stocks -- along with junk bonds -- will prosper in the new year...>>

To: Mannie who wrote (45090)	12/13/2001 10:02:39 AM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Hi Scott, "But is there a disconnect between the economy and the equities market?" I've been saying that for several weeks now, but it seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Not only are we at historically high valuations, forward P/E's are unusually high. IMO, it will take a rather large increase in GDP growth to get P/E's down to nosebleed levels. I also am concerned that we have not priced in the risk of future terrorist attacks. How can stocks be priced for absolute perfection? IMO, sadly there will be more. 9/11 showed that a nation with the freedoms we have make us vulnerable to such atrocities. How can we justify historically high valuations when reality has clearly shown that at any moment we could suffer not only huge losses of life, but hundreds of billions in damage & a near shutdown of the economy for short periods. BWDIK?