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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (5267)	12/13/2001 1:57:40 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

George, what is the reason for that expectation? i think that whatever 'good news' (further rate cuts, defeat of the Taliban, a few merely horrific instead of totally catastrophic earnings reports...) the market had to look forward to are by now in the past, and fully discounted. now we're back to looking at reality, and reality is GRIM. November retail sales down 3.7%, Japanese industrial production in an absolute free-fall (down 11.9%), PPI down a deflationary 0.6%....and mutual fund cash levels down to below 5%, while trimtabs reports that corporate insiders have once again used the rally to go on an all out selling spree, and the trading float on US exchanges keeps increasing apace (so far this year, it has increased by more than $50 billion - while it has shrunk every year from '95 to '99, with the exception of '97 when it stayed flat). i think it more likely that the market will fall into mid 2002, and recover thereafter, once the bullish consensus is slain for good. once we see a rally that is NOT bought by mutual fund investors, and that is not trusted anymore by professional money managers, it will be the real thing and be more durable. but what we've had so far is the typical "ball bouncing down stairs" bear market, with volatility increasing the lower we go...