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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (12923)	12/13/2001 7:29:26 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Justa-this is a critical bit that ZEEV said at one point and my response to it.-----To:Zeev Hed who wrote (6754) From: LTK007 Monday, Nov 19, 2001 6:35 PM Respond to of 12926 Zeev said<What worries me is that a run here to the 2100 area will really set this market up for disappointment if it falls, and then the "to da moon" (3000 or so by the middle to Autumn next year) phase will become more difficult. Good bull moves need strong foundations and good retest of their bottoms, we have not had any of that here. Zeev > i concur most strongly with your concern.Let's say i concur with "exclamation points":). Max------and here is the full text of what i was responding to,the boldface mine-<<-To:orkrious who wrote (6743) From: Zeev Hed Monday, Nov 19, 2001 5:12 PM View Replies (4) \| Respond to of 12926 I don't see any major resistance until about 2102 (some minor resistance at the old 2079 level). Yet I cannot develop enthusiasm for a market going to new recovery highs with new highs lagging (both on the NYSE and Naz), the volume under the late October's peak, the equity P/C ratio under .5 (at .45). I could accept such in the latter part of a major bull move (and allow for momentum continuation for extended time periods), but not on the first leg up. So I still have to stay with a major reaction to this move till the middle of December. When and from where it will start, I have no idea, but as I said, I am not chasing it, got back into few laggards, but still above 70% cash here. I think that I will have better opportunities later. What worries me is that a run here to the 2100 area will really set this market up for disappointment if it falls, and then the "to da moon" (3000 or so by the middle to Autumn next year) phase will become more difficult. Good bull moves need strong foundations and good retest of their bottoms, we have not had any of that here. Zeev >>> ---so,this worst case seems to be what is at work.Max

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (12923)	12/13/2001 10:21:26 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99280

Justa, to make things simpler, the original scenario has a "toda moon" phase next year with the Naz getting very close to 3000 late in the second or third quarter. The Alternate scenario does not have a "to da moon" phase, instead it has a period equivalent to the May/August period of last year. If we do not get to about 1793 before the end of this month, I'll go with the "alternate", if the December decline gets to at least 1793, with the "original", the actual intermediate target levels have been shown to be wrong already, so, I go to "live" with it. (g). Zeev