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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (65593)12/13/2001 12:58:59 PM
From: andreas_wonischRespond to of 275872
 
Joe, Re: The future "shortages" at Intel are a function of how competitive AMD is. If AMD can switch to .13 and deliver a boost of some 300 MHz, all of Intel's .18u capacity would become obsolete overnight, and Intel would have to deliver all the processors on .13u process

Good point. And that's IMO the real risk for AMD not the BS from Mosesmann. If AMD can deliver 0.13 micron Athlons in volume in Q2, they'll stay competitive unless Northwood is far better than we can imagine (either in terms of clock-speed or of added performance features). There will be two events that will greatly influence AMD's near term future: The release of Northwood (January) and the release of Thoroughbred (March for mobiles?). After the first event we will have a very good guess on what is needed from AMD to stay competitive. The best-case-scenario would be performance equivalence with Northwood (Athlon XP 2000+ vs. Northwood 2200). But my guess is that the model rating will have less room than before, resulting in a faster Northwood. But after the second event we'll know how quickly AMD can ramp clock-speed in 0.13 micron in order to close that gap again.

Andreas



To: Joe NYC who wrote (65593)12/13/2001 1:50:53 PM
From: Charles GrybaRespond to of 275872
 
Joe, let's get back to reality. AMD is far from being on .13. Intel is a lot further along. I think Intel will be fine halfway through next year. The shortages are good for AMD but I don't see Intel's .18 stuff being good for anything anyway. Northwood is not going to be made in .18 which means no one will be buying wilamettes everyone will want Northwoods. Intel 'd better be ready to supply the world demand they are forcing upon their customers.

C


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