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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M2 who wrote (5358)	12/14/2001 1:03:02 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 36161

Thanks for that article: It makes for interesting reading. It's dated October 2000 (partway through the Nas's journey from 5000 to 1400), making it sort-of a "period piece". I would agree with much of what he says: official statistics are suspect. And I, too, am worried about American's debts, trade deficit, and stock valuations. And I'm worried that, at some point, the dollar will lose value (relative to gold). But I don't see the Euro benefiting. If unemployment was 9% in Europe at the end of a long economic expansion, what is it going to be as Europe joins the U.S. and Japan in recession? 15%? 20%? Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate is going from 3.9% to, maybe, 6% next year. Our worst is better than their best. "We would rather characterize Europeans as being highly conservative in economic and financial matters." Really? Sure, we've got our Enrons. And they've got their telecoms, who bid umpteen gazillions for 3G spectrum licenses, on the hopes that everyone in Europe was soon going to pay to access realtime video via the internet on their cellphones. Real conservative. "Stronger growth and much lower inflation than in the United States were expected to make European assets attractive and pull in foreign capital." What's happened to that prediction, made over a year ago? Is growth higher in Europe than the U.S.? No. Is inflation lower? No. Have the markets decided that European assets are (relatively) more attractive? No. Our tech stocks have crashed.....and so have theirs. Has the dollar weakened relative to the Euro? Emphatically no. Nothing he thought would happen, has. "So what is ailing the euro? Three things: statistics, perceptions and propaganda. " So, it's just a PR problem? If the European Central Bank hires a better ad agency to promote the Euro, that will fix it, and it will stop it's endless decline against the dollar? I think not. I went to his website, and found that he is still saying the same things: agora-inc.com "America is deeply depressed; Americans, are withdrawing into their homes, shying away from nearly all forms of travel and spending." Wrong. Maybe Europeans would react that way, but we aren't. Americans reacted to 9/11 by getting angry, and vowing to get even (making war and winning it), not by getting depressed. We're not so introspective and self-absorbed (civilized, is what Europeans call themselves when they do that). I think this guy just doesn't understand America or Americans.