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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (35544)	12/14/2001 3:08:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69749

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Updated: 14-Dec-01 General Commentary A shift in the news cycle could prompt the first meaningful correction in techs since late September... Spooked by sales/earnings warnings from Lucent (LU), Ciena (CIEN), Qwest (Q), Macrovision (MVSN) and Macromedia (MACR), and by the weakest Retail Sales report (-3.7%) since records have been kept (1992), investors decided to cash in some of those recently won gains... Nasdaq shed nearly 65 points, or 3.2%, falling to its lowest level since 12/3/01... More significantly, there was no late buying in today's action, as the tech-heavy index closed just off its session low. Taking into account the soft close, Oracle's unimpressive post-close earnings report, renewed fears over timing of economic/earnings recovery and beginning of warnings season, investors no longer feeling the same urgency to buy stocks... But will a lack of buying interest open door for sellers to retake control of the sector/market? Anything's possible, but Briefing.com no longer sees a retest of the Sept lows as a likely scenario... Granted the changing news tone could keep downward pressure on index for a few more days, but strength of recovery rally, lack of attractive investment alternatives, more favorable earnings comps going forward and sketchy but growing evidence that economy has bottomed all point to renewed gains... In fact, after a brief period of consolidation, Briefing.com expects techs to help power overall market to new recovery highs. Valuations and lingering concerns over economy will keep next phase of rally from getting carried away... Nevertheless, Briefing.com suggests that investors stay the course and continue to phase in buying of quality, leadership names with solid balance sheets and strong management teams... Candidates include Siebel (SEBL), Sun Micro (SUNW), Microsoft (MSFT), Applied Materials (AMAT), Symantec (SYMC), Intel (INTC), Checkpoint Software (CHKP), Apple Computer (AAPL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Corning (GLW), Nokia (NOK) and IBM.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (35544)	12/14/2001 3:23:40 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69749

Dec 13,2001 Note COMPX at a critical point on the daily. A break of 1944 would negate the recent up trend channel. Intra-day a buy signal has been generated. It should bounce at this level. Expectations are for this rally to fail, in which case shorts would be entered. SOX is also at a critical level on the daily. Watch 540 level. A break of this level would negate the up trend channel. Intra-day we have a problem, as the charts are indicating a potential negation of the buy signal. The first hour of trading will tell the tale. A negation of the buy signal would indicate more potential downside on the COMPX and invalidate the the buy signal on that index also. Note that this is the week before options expiration. Professional traders will be flatten positions, so strange things can and will happen.