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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Mitchell R. White who wrote (57464)	12/14/2001 8:39:46 AM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

RE: "...Intel cutting its capital expenditures by half is one sign in favor of that view." Just a quick comment here. If memory serves, Intel won't be forecasting '02 capex until after the first of the year when visibility has hopefully improved. It appears current estimates range from a 10% cut to a 50% cut, but to my knowledge there has been no "official" guidance from Intel. Hey, but they did reconfirm their $7.5B '01 capex plans on December 6th! I was getting worried that they were going to change those plans when they kept silent about the number for almost an entire week prior! <g> AdvocateDevil

To: Dr. Mitchell R. White who wrote (57464)	12/14/2001 11:06:55 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Right, Mitch. Good point reminding our resident bear that not all macroeconomic indicators are gloomy. Lower interest rates do lower the hurdle for capital investment and feed the stock market as those higher priced CD's mature. Just give the money to Cary and he'll get you 30% in 6 month AMAT covered calls or establish longterm positions by this summer in the mid 30s just as things will be starting to blossom. (we hope<g>) And monetary policy, as you correctly point out, is extremely accommodative, which will add tremendous liquidity to the vast pool of savings that is already on the sidelines, waiting for the light to turn green. (Yeah, we know AD that AG is almost out of ammo, but the salvo that he has been firing all year is going to be like a slow motion daisy-cutter.) Fiscal policy is still churning through the Congressional pork barrel, but that too will come after the usual legislative time lag, though probably too late to relieve any temporary pain. Jobs are a lagging indicator, so you can just filter out the bad news there. Even if jobless rate gets to 6.5% to 7% from today's 5.7%, it's merely a garden variety recession. (Sorry BTW about your wife's best friend. As the old joke goes, if it's you then it's a depression.) In the meantime, enjoy your Barton Springs baths and your Fresh Choice treats and your new Fry's. Things could be much much worse, but Moore's law will pull us out of this eventually. This is just my thinking here as we probe the bottom of AMAT's two month bull channel this morning and the stars come into alignment for what appears to me as a rather good buying opportunity both shortterm and longterm. Sam