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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (26086)	12/14/2001 12:14:34 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 52237

There was also a fairly precipitous drop in the Fed funds rate in the first part of the 1980-1982 recession coincident with the 1980 market trough. Rather than the market predicting a recovery/expansion, the Fed uses the market as a tool for encouraging or discouraging demand. Like any tool, it has varying degrees of success. stls.frb.org

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (26086)	12/15/2001 1:30:58 AM
From: Robert Scott	Respond to of 52237

The way I calculate the length is not the same way the National Bureau of Economic Research does. They consider the period from the end of expansion to the beginning of expansion a recession. I count the months of recession using quarters of negative GDP. If you use their method, the recession began in April 2001 - so we are 8 1/2 months into it. In either case, we are more than 1/2 way through the average recession since WWII which is when the market anticipates a recovery. We're throwing a lot of fiscal and monetary stimulus at this recession and I believe it's going to be enough to pull us out soon. The market thinks so too because it's acting much like it has in the post WWII recessions.