To: Paul Engel who wrote (152528 ) 12/14/2001 2:18:43 PM From: TomZ Respond to of 186894 Interesting analysis that seems to parallel the ongoing valuation discussion on this thread Improved efficiencies spark tech stocks rally By Roger Norberg EBN (12/10/01, 01:01:59 AM EST) U.S. equity markets have been swimming upstream against a strong current of negative economic data that points to a recession. The sharp rebound has left many investors behind as equities have appeared expensive by historic measures, compounded by the fear and horror of geo-political terror. However, major shocks to the system tend to be the catalysts that end bear markets. Government policy actions have also quickly changed the monetary and fiscal landscape. In the electronics sector, business activity in the aggregate does not appear to have changed much from pre-September levels. End demand is still soft but has not collapsed, and participants in the food chain continue to focus on inventory liquidation and capacity rationalization. In some cases inventories have hit bottom, which is triggering a certain amount of order activity. Oddly, the sharp rise in technology shares in the last few weeks has been met with more than a few boos from analysts who a year ago chanted bullish praise about the unlimited growth of technology, ignoring comments about irrational exuberance from the Federal Reserve Board chairman and lofty valuations that could not be explained by any sensible methodology. However, it was easily explained by the bulls that in a new-age economy, archaic valuation rules simply did not apply. It appears, however, that many of these analysts have become “born- again” valuation disciples, and now fear the rally because earnings multiples still look expensive. The lesson learned is that valuation is always a part, but never the whole, of rigorous equity analysis. While we share some of the same concerns, we also believe that the rally in technology shares has justification. What the market is seeing that many analysts are missing is the positive impact that downsizing efforts will have on earnings. In the last few weeks, some OEMs, including Cisco Systems, Hewlett-Packard, and Network Appliance, have reported quarterly results that exceeded Wall Street consensus earnings estimates, and forward estimates have been revised up. The positive surprises were not driven by strong revenues, they were driven by leaner expenses. As such, tech shares have been bid up, somewhat in anticipation that “Street estimates” may be too low. The tech sector still appears expensive, especially to analysts that believe tech shares cannot sustain a rally until the next “wave of demand” is sighted. While analysts scan the horizon hoping to spot this wave, tech shares trade up in anticipation, supported by the increased possibility that earnings will recover without a big demand catalyst. Stocks ultimately trade on earnings growth, and investors reward companies that grow earnings faster than revenues because of increasing efficiencies. This is the historic behavior of markets. History also shows that forecasting inflection points in demand is extremely hard to do, and usually stocks have moved in advance. Stocks do not always move in tandem with the fundamentals, which is a source of constant discomfort for fundamental analysts. In the confusion, investors will continue to ponder the question, “What kind of exuberance is this?”.ebnews.com