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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25218)	12/14/2001 2:44:09 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

He LIVES! g Welcome back Heinz, even if for a moment...eom

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25218)	12/14/2001 2:54:08 PM
From: martin001	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Heinz - you ole SOB <g> what the hell u up to? I saw you found some new digs. Good to see you back. Need your bearish musings to keep the bulls honest <g> M

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25218)	12/14/2001 5:48:16 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I'm Really Glad You Stopped By I've been meaning to seek you out to get your current thoughts about deflation. I know that you thought it was a possibility, and it is true that we have not seen any real price pressure as of yet, except perhaps in the debt market (but you know that is only speculation. <gg> Nevertheless, I keep coming back to a few points. Inflation is monetary phenomena and is what happens when you increase fiat dollars faster than the economy is increasing goods and services. The creation of excess fiat dollars during this last year was massive (I would speculate that the differential is without historic precedent in this country, but I also would speculate that you know whether that is the case or not. <gg>). At this time, the overwhelming majority of the increased liquidity is in stock prices. After all, once created, liquidity has to be somewhere. It takes time for liquidity to work its way into the economy, but it can find its way into stock prices without any delay. (In fact, the flow of liquidity into stock prices is so fast it violates the laws of physics, not only being faster than the speed of light, but also actually arriving at the destination before departing from its point of origin <gg>). The money supply was increased far more quickly than it could be absorbed by the economy. All of the excess is in stock prices. Because of this, the only inflation we have seen so far is in stock prices. (This not with standing the fact that there can be no such thing as stock inflation since it seems that it is a given today that the value of a stock is by definition its price. <gg>) However, quicker than you can say “Insider Sells” its going to find its way into the real economy, and when it does its must be inflationary. It seems to me that the end game here is stagflation. I just don’t seem to be able to get my arms around the concept that an inflationary money policy will not be inflationary. But as you are aware, I have short arms. Any help would be appreciated. BTW - You should stop by more often. Other than having a strange fetish related to wiggles and Jello, the folks here are most thoughtful, and Allan ensures that everything is very proper and civil. <gg>

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25218)	12/21/2001 5:52:35 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

i for one believe that the entire bull market from the mid 90's lows was a corrective wave...and the bear market that began in '85 is about to resume. Oh Dude, now you are really bursting my bubble. <g> American prosperity just one big fraud and we didn't beat out the Japanese after all?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25218)	1/7/2002 12:59:10 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 209892

actually, i wasn't really looking for a new high, more like expecting a possible re-test and topping out in that area...more of a double top type thing. regardless, The beginning of the end here i think... it will be interesting to see how zealously the FED decides to defend and support the $, at the expense of pumping the market any further and risking having to raise rates. A house of cards by any measure... China backs the euro at dollar's expense Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Brussels (Filed: 07/01/2002) THE Chinese government gave the euro its much-coveted seal of approval yesterday, announcing that it would switch part of its vast dollar reserves into the world's emerging "reserve currency". Chinese finance minister Xiang Huaicheng said the flawless launch of notes and coins had swept away the lingering doubts about monetary union and opened the way for a recovery on the exchange markets. "I will instruct the responsible authorities that they should not just have a currency basket but rather that they should buy euros as quickly as possible," he said after a meeting in Shanghai with the German finance minister, Hans Eichel. "It is an inevitable tendency that the euro will become a reserve currency for a lot of states," he said, predicting that it would regain parity with the dollar. China has roughly $200 billion (£140 billion) in foreign reserves, the second largest in the world. A small proportion is believed to be in euros already in the form of deutschmark and French franc bonds, but a major switch in asset allocation from dollars to euros could be large enough to influence the currency markets. The European Commission said yesterday that it was the political gesture that really mattered. "What's important is the political signal of confidence that this transmits, not the volume of money," said monetary affairs spokesman Gerassimos Thomas. China and the European Union share a joint suspicion of American "hegemony" in the global economic system and have been edging towards mutual embrace for several years. Beijing has a strong interest in promoting a rival currency, but it has been waiting for clear evidence that the euro is a viable long-term currency before committing itself. The Chinese backing for the currency came as a leading consultancy said that the economic case for Britain entering the euro will weaken in 2002 as UK interest rates rise and eurozone rates fall sharply. The Centre for Economic Business Research also said that Britons' increasing familiarity with the new currency could present an "unusual opportunity for the UK to have its cake and eat it by staying outside". It estimates that, by the end of 2002, just over half the UK population will have used euro notes and coins and that, as a result, the present majority against joining will erode. However, CEBR believes the Government is unlikely to call a referendum within the next 18 months because it says 55pc to 65pc of voters would still come out against entry. portal.telegraph.co.uk Happy New Year! Always the Best, John