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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25260)	12/14/2001 5:33:28 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

That 1985 bottom was prefaced with the spring dump to fresh lows which wiped out the early bottom pickers. I would not be surprised to see the same thing here which would break the early 2001 lows, maybe even the 1999 lows. That would certainly take the HUI into a '5' of 'C'. But if your count is right, I'll miss the boat.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25260)	12/16/2001 10:38:02 AM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

have heard some talk about a possible deal between the treasury dept and japan. japan would buy the long bond in size which would 'temporarily' bring the bond yield more in line with a stimulative number while sufficiently devaluing the yen. thus, an economic stimulus is provided for cheap, japanese goods. of course this won't work in the long term as a deflationary dominoe effect for other foreign currencies would hit american corporate profits hard as the dollar is the benchmark. nonetheless, there are a number of other events that in the short term could provide the appropriate market psychology for a continued move up. 1)end of year fund chasing performance ramp 2)OBL death 3)economic stimulus package 4)the thought(mistaken of course) that the worst is behind us. nontheless, i agree there is more room for upside. i also agree that the shorting opportunity awaiting will be epic and singular. in the short-term, i think the market will perform and gold is at risk. however, i think the feb/march timeframe at this point, is dead on for a broad and steep equities decline with concomittant gold ramp. regards, st