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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (11880)	12/15/2001 8:44:14 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

"...IMF has often told smaller, weaker, countries exactly what to do. But it is balking at trying to dictate a change in the exchange-rate regime to a big emerging economy whose citizens are strongly in favour of the current system. In part, this is a real change of philosophy: since the arrival of Horst Köhler, the Fund's German boss, the IMF takes country “ownership” of economic reforms more seriously. But partly, too, it is an attempt to avoid the blame for Argentina's mess—“ass-covering”, as it has been put by one Fund-watcher. Mr Cavallo would quickly denounce any pressure from the IMF either to default or to change the exchange-rate regime, and would ensure that any subsequent economic chaos was squarely laid at the Fund's door." The IMF that is why the Argentina crisis is not yet unfolded. economist.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (11880)	12/16/2001 11:29:58 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 74559

You see, as it is apparent:0) it will be difficult to convince me that all is well, buy equities, and that I can beat the hand of market, for now, for a while longer, until people wake up from the equity cult. All is not well, I think. I'm following the Wily Coyote thesis. Figure he has some way to run in thin air still, i.e. it is not just the equity markets that are booming, economic activity, at least for the middle classes, seems to be very strong. Eventually interest rates will have to jack up again, or the USD will fall or AUD go up and the party will come to a shuddering halt and people will be shocked and say "what happened?!" The equity markets are at make or break point here from the point of view of whether the rally will continue. Teresa Lo concurs on that. I got a reasonable price now on my round the world ticket. Less than USD1500 all in. Cheaper than the US and back trip. Will now go to Atlanta, Newark, Frankfurt, and Singapore. Will report back on what I see :) David