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To: JRI who wrote (25283)	12/15/2001 4:11:02 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

JRI: whats your take on the interest rate dilemma? Seems to me one would have to have a pretty good grasp on chaos theory to know the outcome. On the one hand, holding a 10 yr treasury at current return till maturity may seem like a pretty good idea in retrospect 10 years from now. But, those dollars you cash out at the end of 10 years may not be 'your fathers dollars'... As for economists: why bother? a science? Hah! One group that has been relatively consistently correct is the Levy group. Have you read them recently? levy.org

To: JRI who wrote (25283)	12/16/2001 11:49:58 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Swonk needs to do a little more thinking. The only reason inventories were drawn down was because production was decreased and deep discounts were offered to unload the current inventory. This creates lower profits for the selleres, but even more important, it created a big black hole for the next 6 months on the buy side. Take the auto industry as an example. Most people that planned to buy a car sometime over the next 6 months probably jumped on the zero % financing deal. Who does that leave to buy cars in the near future, espcially if rate cuts are now ending and inflation starts to return which it looks like it might.

To: JRI who wrote (25283)	12/21/2001 5:14:22 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

the interest rate question requires a lengthy reply, as we have to consider historic precedent, which tells us that DESPITE our entering a deflationary era, the rate question is NOT clear cut. please send me a reminder pm and i will post my reply on this thread next week. regarding inventories, let's not forget that sales are falling even faster. therefore the inventory/sales ratio remains at a level suggesting further retrenchment is coming. EVENTUALLY there will be an imo uncharacteristically anemic upswing based on inventory rebuild, and you're right that it will be hailed as the big recovery and result in a fairly decent rally. but i think based on my post bubble inventory cycle theory that this phase will be much further in the future than Ms. Swonk seems to think. my estimate is that it will begin in the spring of 2003, exactly three years after the asset bubble peak. regarding Siegel, i'm speechless. i for one believe that we have the preconditions for the worst post WW2 depression in place, and that is clearly at odds with the majority of economic guessers, who to a man seem to think it will be the shortest and shallowest recession ever. i can hardly wait to hear them explain what happened after the fact. i thought Siegel was a contrarian too. here's a most interesting article on the heroic assumptions of today's buyers in the stock market. i highly recommend it, and agree with it almost 100%: hussman.com