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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (11889)	12/15/2001 7:30:16 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I got that message:0) FWIW, I pass on an e-mail message from a head of bond trading pal based in Japan ... "so many experts have weighed in on the japan story that i wont try to put in my two cents except to repeat some of the research that i've read that i like. japan is not deferring to us interests by maintaining a strong dollar but rightly observing their own interests. most of the article below was debatable but its this issue which i found most objectionably ignorant. rightly or wrongly, the mkt consensus is that with the bush administration, it agrees that weaker yen is the only policy tool left to inflate japan out of its deflationary spiral and it has bush's approval. i sent out a good research report this week to you guys talking about a small yen devaluation to 140 would not fix japan's problem but it would cause further asian currency devaluation, etc. hold very little hk$! i think this probability is actually inevitable and a yen back to 170/200 which we've seen in our professional life would cause worldwide concerns of deflation in usa/europe. its this bigger move which i think will cause global problems over next 3-5yrs in addition to china's cheap manufacturing/wto entry factor. nearer term beyond 2003 with a weak econ recovery in 2002, i think the weak yen and slowdown in china's gdp may be the two big factors to watch. other than that, what else is everybody doing for the holidays? cheers to all for a very happy holidays." If he is proven right, never mind the Taiwans and Koreas, what then happens to GM, Ford, and Daimler, and all them semi-con outfits in Sandy Valley?! Chugs, Jay