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To: Paul Merriwether who wrote (135869)12/16/2001 3:57:52 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
Paul: The market has already priced-in a much bigger economic snapback than we are likely to get. Of course it can move up, but when you see Bill and Mark talk about Yahoo surging back to $200 per share is an example of jumping back into fantasy land. A correction here would be no surprise. A modest move up next year would be no surprise. But a 1000 percent return in Yahoo in the next year is absurdly delusional.

BTW, Bill says the dollar has no problem, period. I say it has a long-term problem but I have said nothing about it lately. Bill raised the issue last week because he likes to use it as an example of me being wrong about something. Because they need to be financed, current account deficits can snowball. The snowball is getting bigger and it will be big enough to cause trouble sooner or later -- and most likely later as you suggest. But just because it hits later does not mean that the problem does not exist.