Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (109564)	12/16/2001 2:36:11 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

PCSTel: What are you talking about? 5 years from now is almost 2007, 2003 capacity will be 50M. 2003 is not 5 years away, it is 13 months. In five years, is not unreasonablee to postulate that the number of chinese subs could be greater than the enitre CDMA sub base is today. The deal for 2.5% royalties is tied to using Qualcomm chips. Caxton

To: pcstel who wrote (109564)	12/16/2001 3:06:49 PM
From: S100	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Sounds pretty bad, I hope you are short a bunch. However, you may have over looked a few points. Each phone has a MSM. Just for sake of argument, lets say a price around $25 with a profit margin of 30 percent or $7.50 per phone. So far no one else has been able to make a good working MSM so it may be a while before much competition arrives. Even then, QCOM should get a cut of the action. Also, the last time I checked, the phones do not connect directly with each other but use a base station. The base stations use CSMs, which have a "quite a good margin". For sake of argument, lets say $100 profit each. The IS95 used 64 codes (channels) per sector, with most base stations having 3 sectors. There could be one (omni ) sector up to 6. Lets use 3 sectors for argument. The new CSMs support 32 channels each, so two per sector. But the new standards provide almost double the number of phones, so lets use 4 CSMs per sector or 12 per base station or $1,200 profit per base station. Now how many base stations? One in all of China? One base station for each phone? Enough to support 1 percent of the phones? 2 percent, 10 percent? Two percent sounds good so that gives about 2,600 base stations. About another $3 million or so for CSMs, not worth figuring in unless QCOM gets a percentage of the base station cost. Total profit for 50 million phones, about $500 million. Snip Analysts expect handset sales growth in China to be sustained by an eagerness among users to keep up with the latest fashions. "In China, people are keen to have the latest phone, and the replacement rate is higher than in the US," Mr Lewis says. He estimates that about 30 per cent of new handset demand in 2001 in China has stemmed from people replacing their existing handsets, compared with 22 per cent in the US. Snap news.ft.com Perhaps you are reading these which accounts for your pessimism? seas.smu.edu seas.smu.edu He also wrote a book about GSM, "GSM Superphones" which is not worth buying BTW. OT, seems that OBL was seen via a spy satellite escaping into Pakistan. fightthebias.com