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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (1001)	12/17/2001 3:57:08 PM
From: Stephen O	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

In December, the Homebuilders' Market Index bounced back 8 points, much more than expected. This should buoy construction stocks and building materials firms. However, the report was more gasoline on the bond market fire. One of the more reliable surveys of economic activity sent a very positive signal Monday. The National Association of Homebuilders said their markets were reviving, with sales jumping 8 points to 60, expected sales rising the same amount to 64, and traffic in model homes up 8 points to 46. That brought sales activity back to near pre-9/11 levels. Mortgage rates dived from 7.13% in July to just over 6.6% in Oct/Nov. We think this rate decline helped housing significantly. By mid December, although builders' financing probably still reflected November rates, the market had driven spot mortgage rates back above the July level. Viewing the bond market today, mortgage rates won't stop there. Holding on to the recovery in home sales is thus problematic. But there's no question that the builders are sending a signal that low mortgage rates would work, if only the Fed could produce them on a lasting basis next year. Homebuilders' Index Dec Nov Oct July Dec00 Overall 57 49 47 56 58 Traffic 46 38 33 40 42 Mortgage Rates 7.15e 6.66 6.62 7.13 7.38

To: NOW who wrote (1001)	1/17/2002 2:37:37 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1643

>> keep your eyes on the core... << isn't that what the bubbleheads used to tell us the last few years? ignore that larger than expected jump in inflation, you have to exclude volatile items like food and energy! (last time i checked food and energy are significant and regular expenditures for americans). of course now that the core is showing regular increases in prices all the bubbleheads want to focus on the overall number, and the core only gets a footnote type mention while the overall number grabs the headlines.