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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (14026)	12/17/2001 8:49:08 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

That chart is too bearish for me. I would think that forward estimates are the thing to focus on at this point. When we bottom, the market will still look expensive on a trailing basis. Still, forward estimates need to come down in my opinion as overvaluation exists there as well. Justa, what are your thoughts on where we go from here? Do you have a turnip patch? <VBG>

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (14026)	12/17/2001 9:23:33 PM
From: Alex MG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Also what that chart fails to factor in is the "liquidity pump", or the Fed model valuation. I have stated already that I am in the camp that the Sep lows were probably the bottom, at least for a good while, but at the current market levels "long" isn't worth the risk... Basically I think it is all about trading... "New Bull Market" is nothing but hype, unless we have a v-bottom recovery in earnings, which looks about as likely as monkeys flyin' outta my @ss. On the other hand I agree with Sy Harding's philosophy about trading the short term... "The phrase "Missing the forest for the trees" was coined to caution against getting bogged down in the details of a situation and not paying attention to the big picture. The opposite approach can cause just as much difficulty in investing. That big picture approach has two major problems. The first is that life is what happens while you're making long-term plans. So such analysis periodically gets caught in a time warp, continuing to tell investors the market won't rally, or even that it can't rally, even as it is doing so in a significant way. When rallies finally end, as they all must, and corrections set in, of course the word becomes, "I told you so". But meanwhile significant profits have been taken by those watching the trees rather than the forest..."