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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (14065)	12/18/2001 9:41:51 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Turkey is a key to all of this Yeah, I would love to see us use Turkey as the ground force if we decide to dispose of Saddam. Safire proposed this in a column a couple of months ago as a joke, but it makes sense to me. Turkey has a secular government with a Muslim population, and the nearest thing to a democracy I know of in the Muslim world. We would be in good shape, IMO, if the rest of the Muslim countries went the same way.

To: unclewest who wrote (14065)	12/18/2001 7:53:16 PM
From: axial	Respond to of 281500

Hi, unc - I agree very much with the the sense of your response. FWIW, I think it's unlikely, right now, that the US will attack Iraq. That, for a number of reasons, including (but not limited to) the strenuous objections of "allies", especially Germany and Russia, and "some" Arab states. Absent a clear provocation, or some unequivocal and undeniable involvement with terrorism, the world right now has little stomach for further increasing the suffering of the Iraqi people. While the US can, and should retain its right to unilateral action, it should do so with an eye to the consequences. Now would be a bad time to make up for the failure to take out Hussein: it's waited this long; it can wait a little longer. If, or when the US does decide to move on Iraq, I think it will be a lightning strike, pre-emptive, and sharply limited in scope - designed to take out Hussein: no more. In and out. But that step might be ill-advised for the power vacuum it would leave; I think more groundwork needs to be laid on the question of Iraq. All that being said, I see a distinct psychological benefit to the US "dusting off" its armor, and making small head-fakes in the ME. There is no doubt that many of the Terrorist Persuasion are beginning to wonder where, and when the hammer will fall next. To the extent that these head-fakes provoke signals traffic that can be used in ELINT, there is a secondary benefit. Finally, in the rotation of units and vessels, I see little preparation right now, for an immediate thrust on an enemy so distant from Afghanistan. Certainly it is possible; but if I were to give odds, I'd say 1 in 10. I think a new geographic center has to be drawn, in terms of logistics and preparation. When it is, Hussein will have to live, day by day, with the increased probability of attack. Regards, Jim