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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (5310)	12/18/2001 2:01:55 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi Jon, I just saw Jonathan Clements, who put this together on cnbc... he talked about the responder who was bragging about their 2.4% gain. Fred Hunt, also is very right about not taking the FED seriously when they started to raise rates in 1999. The FED in lifting the FED Funds rate and thus raising short term rates-- inverted the yield curve ( short term rates higher than long term rates) and that has just about a perfect record of indicating a coming recession and also a bear market in stocks in the US Post WWII Financial experience . The Italian stockmarket was able to go higher, I believe, in later 1990's. Even though their curve was inverted. But Henry points out that there was a political element to their inversion, due to the coming of the Eurocurrency. Fighting the Fed: I made the mistake of not taking the Federal Reserve seriously back in 1999 [when it started raising interest rates]. When the Fed next decides to end the party, I am going to earmark my savings for a money-market fund. Frederick D. Hunt, Jr., Rochester, N.H.