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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (15475)	12/18/2001 7:42:31 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 42834

richard, my analysis is always pretty straightforward and economically sound (or as much as i can be). 1. i see unemployment getting worse. just read the headlines. 2. i read delinquent mortgages are at a 10 year high. 3. i see mortgage rates have bottomed out ending the "monetize the equity - almost free money - game." 4. i know the productivity miracle doesn't exist outside of the govt's sharp pencils. 5. i know every bubble has ended badly - and this was the granddaddy of them all. 6. i know many companies burning through their war chest obtained during the bubble b/c they can't make money. 7. the bubble recently taught me that major trends don't change quickly - even if there are bumps along the way. 8. i hope i'm wrong, but i bet ased on facts, not hope. btw, i think an argument can be made for dollar cost avg into historically low valued stocks and dollar cost selling when those stock are historically overvalued. that is what i call "market timing" - even if it takes years to play out. right now i don't see much historically low valuation stuff so i'm being patient.