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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (15476)	12/18/2001 1:47:19 PM
From: geode00	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

I have a hard time seeing the justification for criticizing Bob's recommendation to leave 40% (and later 35%) in the market. Considering the difficulties inherent in market timing, it seems like a prudent thing to have done. In the last two years, Bob hasn't been particularly prudent so I doubt that was his rationale. I think it's much more likely that he didn't believe his own bearish leanings and he was hedging just in case the market continued higher as it did. From where I sit, Bob has been right sometimes and wrong sometimes about this market. I think he is easily buffeted and swayed by current conditions and the media just like everyone else. If he was as sure about future direction as he is in hindsight, why didn't he put money in bonds at the beginning of last year? He had lots of it in cash reserves waiting for opportunities like the QQQs. He reallocates and he hedges just like everyone else. The difference with Bob is that he spins the past rather than coming clean. The net result is that he looks much more prescient and skillful than his actual results warrant. I find this very dangerous and I don't know why some people still can't come to grips with this reality in the face of the facts. To say that market timing is difficult instead of saying that it is not possible (even Bob admitted you need a crystal ball to be effective) is refusing to acknowledge reality. No one is going to sell a working market timing model for $185/year to all comers.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (15476)	12/18/2001 7:29:46 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

richard, in hindsight, the 60% call was pretty good. however... 1. he MISSED the last 20-25% up by selling early. that is substantial when you are near 100% invested. 2. bob said he would avoid a bear market if he saw one. therefore, his "indicators" didn't see this bear. 3. he suggested aggressive investors dump 40,50,60% (whatever HUGE number it was) into overvalued fluff qqqs w/o a thought of valuation and prospects (ie, gambling - and he LOST BIG). 4. he bought a b2b fund near the absolute top 5. bob calls other people names for missing markets moves (bull market b2b bobby wishes he'd never been born - or at least those qqq callers had never been born! ;-). 6. bob strategically avoids being accountable for his own STUPID calls. the 60% out of the market call was pure luck, imho. if he had used any sort of analysis, he would have been out of the market much sooner. no way to justify those prices and repeatedly spoke out against the silliness in real time. so, let's test the luck theory. he dumped a HUGE % of cash into them and LOST. he's missed how many CTRs since he said he could predict them? the thing that really bothers me about bob is that he actually has folks hang p on people who want to discuss the TRUTH! i can hear bobby boy now... "get to know the dial tone... you qqq loser! ha ha ha!" back to caller... "yes, i did take money out of the market right before the crash... how did you find out? really? thank ya, thank ya very much!"