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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (45357)12/19/2001 12:33:54 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
Unrest in Argentina

Argentine markets sink as supermarket riots weigh

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Argentine markets sank on Wednesday as investors worried growing riots at supermarkets, some of the country's worst unrest in a decade, could help spark a major change in economic policy.

The leading MerVal stocks index (^MERV - news) was down 1.03 percent, falling 2.62 points to 250.82 at 1:40 p.m. (11:40 a.m. EST/1640 GMT). Turnover was brisk at $7.9 million.

Argentina's benchmark Global 2008 dollar bond traded flat at 31 percent of face value.

Traders said the market's mood was grim as police fired tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse looters who ransacked stores throughout Argentina to protest government budget cuts and growing widespread poverty.

Social tensions in Argentina have come to a head as the country slogs through a recession in its fourth year. The government is trying desperately to avoid a default on its $132 billion debt or a currency devaluation.

``There's concern the social tensions could be the trigger that leads the government to give up and default, or do something else disastrous,'' said a trader.

Traders also said they had been discouraged by the International Monetary Fund's comments on Tuesday that Argentina's economic policies were not viable.

``The social problems, as well as the IMF's announcement that Cavallo's plan is not the right way out of the crisis, are weighing on the market today,'' Sebastian Espinoza, a trader for De Bary brokerage, said, referring to Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo.

Steel maker Acindar said on Wednesday it would miss both principal and interest payments on its debt due to the long recession and annual interest rates of around 30 percent.

Acindar shares sank 4 percent on Wednesday to 12 cents, near year-lows, following a dive of 18 percent on Tuesday. The company said it would discuss with creditors how to pay its debt.

Financial holding company Grupo Financiero Galicia shares fell 8.33 percent to 38.5 cents as traders worried its balance sheet could be severely wounded by a government default.

Overall, 14 shares declined, seven advanced and three shares traded even.



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (45357)12/19/2001 12:34:10 PM
From: RR  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 65232
 
Jim: I don't expect Japan to have a significant impact on the U.S. recovery.

You stated some of the reasons I feel that way in your own post, especially your last main paragraph.

I would not go so far to say that Japan is a non-issue, but it does not have the impact it would have had maybe 5 years ago, and certainly 10 years ago. There has been a huge business shift with Japan during that time. I don't have trade stats to back that up, nor do I want to dig for them, but that's my impression. Heck, they even started building cars over here instead, among other things, as you know, during that time.

In fact, what are we so dependent upon them now for anyway?

They're toast.
We know it.
They know it.
They are caught up in their old ways but won't change.
Want a loan? 0% interest in Japan....

RR



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (45357)12/19/2001 12:44:42 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
The ISI's double game

As the first phase of war in Afghanistan comes to a close, the situation is
getting more curious by the day. Sample this: an Eastern Alliance (the
so-called anti-Taliban Pushtoons) fighter tells an American journalist that he
has just offered a prayer for the well-being of Osama bin Laden since he is a
fellow Muslim!

Mark the contrast between the thousands of Al Qaeda and Taliban men surrounded in
Mazar-e-Sharif and Kunduz and the measly number of prisoners taken in fighting in the Tora Bora
mountains as well as in Kandahar. As The Washington Post has noted, not a single important
Taliban leader or Osama follower has been caught in this 'fierce' fight.

Then on Monday CNN showed a hilarious clip of the Pakistani Army 'sealing' the Afghanistan
border! The clip showed a company-sized unit (100-odd soldiers) alighting from vehicles and
marching smartly along a frontier road! If this is 'sealing' the border, Musharraf is a modern
Napoleon or Powell a 21st century Patton!

The signs are unmistakable. The Pakistanis and the pro-Taliban elements are doing their level best
to save Taliban and Al Qaeda fugitives. This is where the attack on Parliament fits in the jigsaw
puzzle.

Unfortunately for the ISI, the attack was only partially successful. The terrorists failed to detonate
the car bomb and also could not enter the building. But this happened accidentally. Imagine the
situation if the terrorists had succeeded in detonating their bomb and killing the vice-president!
There is no question that India would have erupted and a shooting war would have begun
between India and Pakistan.

Given the nuclear status of both countries, the entire attention of the world and that of the United
States would have been then diverted from Afghanistan to the Indo-Pak border. Even now some
success has been achieved. Pakistan has now a ready excuse to turn its attention away from Tora
Bora and feign inability to check the escape of Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders in the country's vast
human sea.

These events may not be to the liking of the moderates or even Musharraf, but time and again it
has been proved that the ISI and other jihadi elements have their independent agenda and are not
under the control of the Pakistani state, such as it is.

There are several precedents. On the eve of the Lahore bus journey, Hindus were massacred in
Doda. When Bill Clinton visited India, we had the Chattisinghpura massacre of Sikhs. All of these
incidents went against the interests of Pakistan. Maybe there is some truth in the separatist
Hurriyat Conference's assertion that every time there is a chance of peace in Kashmir, an event
takes place to sabotage the prospects.

The events of the recent past just go to show the determination of the jihadis and their
single-minded pursuit of a bloody agenda. Will Pakistan's father and foster father [the UK and the
US, respectively] see the light of day even at this late stage? Or will they continue to pretend that
the radical Islamic threat is confined to Afghanistan and Somalia?

With the evidence of Pakistani collusion in Al Qaeda's nuclear and biological weapons
programmes coming to light, it is possible that the next attack on the US could be even more
devastating than the one on 9/11. Maybe the Powells of this world will then see the wisdom in
Indian pleas.

rediff.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (45357)12/19/2001 2:54:58 PM
From: Sully-  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 65232
 
Sales Weak but DVD Players Sell

DVD Players, George Foreman Grills, Retro Toys Among the Bright Spots in an Otherwise Gloomy Holiday Season

By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO
AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- Items related to the heart and home -- from kitchen appliances to lockets -- are ringing up solid gains for retailers, emerging as a pocket of strength amid what is expected to be the weakest holiday sales season in a decade.

Despite massive amounts of marked-down products still languishing on retailers' shelves this holiday
, certain items appear to have hit a note with consumers as they re-evaluate their priorites, spending more time at home, in the aftermath of Sept. 11. Harry Potter merchandise, arts and crafts, George Foreman grills, retro toys like Shrinky Dinks and GI Joes, DVD players and games consoles have been this holiday's hot sellers.

Such hot spots, though limited, have even surprised Marian Salzman, worldwide director of strategy and planning for New York-based marketer Euro RSCG, who expected stores would be empty.

``I though consumers would buy even less,'' she said.'' I am surprised that there is some consumer optimism.''

Following the terrorist attacks, consumers, nervous about massive layoffs and political uncertainties, pulled back even more, particularly on apparel and jewelry.

Even deep discounting, which was stepped up this past weekend, hasn't enticed consumers to splurge. From Nov. 23 through Dec. 16, sales at specialty stores at 80 of the nation's regional malls were down 3 percent, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

``What has happened since Sept. 11 is that consumers realize they have a choice: to buy nothing,'' said C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, based in Charleston, S.C. ``They realize that being with their family is more important than buying something nice for their family.''

Even toy retailers, which were hoping that parents would splurge on their children in these scary times, have found they've become choosier. Sales of highly publicized watch-me robotic pets, like Hasbro's $199 I-Cybe, have been difficult, according to Chris Byrne, an independent toy consultant. He also pointed out that he is seeing parents not buy a second-alternative, if they can't find the one they want.


David Conti, a 41-year-old father from Boxford, Mass., typifies the current consumer spending trend. He's cut back on holiday spending by $300 to $700, zeroing in on home-oriented purchase, like DVDs for his two children. For himself, he's purchased a number of regional Italian cookbooks and kitchen appliances on Amazon.com, noting that he is cooking more, and is dining out less.

``I am trying to spend more time with my family,'' he said. ``It just doesn't seem right to be spending on items like jewelry.''

Retailers that have the right type of merchandise are the ones that are doing well this holiday.

``We are at the heart of what is happening,'' said Bryan DeCordova, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Michaels Stores Inc., the nation's leading arts and crafts retailer, which reported a 20 percent increase in November sales at stores open at least a year, known as same-store sales. Its Christmas category, which includes wreaths, trees and garlands, is up 50 percent on a same-store sales basis, indicating that consumers are staying home.

This holiday, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. has seen sales of pajamas and chicken roasters double from a year ago. Holiday sales have also been fueled by game consoles and other consumer electronics. Arts and crafts have been an ``above-average performer,'' said Tom Williams, company spokeswoman said.

At e-tailer Amazon.com, business has been driven by consumer electronics, namely DVD players, game consoles and digital cameras, anything Harry Potter, and kitchen appliances. For example, the company is expected to sell 100,000 DVD players, more than double from last year's 40,000 units, helped in part by more affordable prices. The number of George Foreman and Weber grills sold combined are expected to triple to 45,000 this holiday, from 15,000 a year ago.

Sales of fitness and game equipment, including $700 treadmills and $500 pool tables, are up triple-digits at Sears.com from a year ago, according to Chuck Cebuhar, vice president. Sales of housewares have more than doubled as well.

``There's no question that people are using this holiday season to reflect what is important, moving away from a more self-centered focus to being more family-oriented,'' he said.

At cable television's QVC's shopping channel, sales of kitchen appliances have surged 21 percent, while its consumer electronics business, fueled by DVD players, digital cameras and computers, has soared 54 percent, according to Doug Rose, vice president of merchandising and brand development.

Even in the sluggish jewelry area, there have been some bright spots. David Gow, chief executive of Ashford.com, an online luxury site, reported that double-digit sales increases of diamonds, particularly engagement rings, have helped keep the average holiday ticket level with last year's $500. Excluding diamonds, the average ticket would have been $400.

Jewelry e-tailer Bluenile.com reported that lockets, priced from $30 to $300, are among the top sellers in unit sales this holiday, according to Sue Bell, vice president of marketing. Diamond sales, including engagement rings, are up 25 percent.

``Consumers are looking for something sentimental, things that make you feel good,'' she said.

biz.yahoo.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (45357)12/19/2001 3:28:45 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
jw: Any thoughts on this...?

Message 16811263