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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (57754)	12/19/2001 1:48:40 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

ML on BTB: • We estimate that the ratio will increase from the preliminary 0.71 in October to 0.72 for November. While we expect both order and revenues to continue to decline, as orders approach their bottom the rate of order decline is simply less than the revenue decline at this time. Hence the book to bill ratio should tick up. • However, we estimate orders to be down 2% to 5% and be in the low $620 to $640 million range. (Keep in mind that the timing of a single large order, like Applied Material’s (AMAT; C-1-1-9; $43.20) anticipated $100 million order from TSMC, can significantly skew results at these levels even though the ratio is a 3-month moving average.) The second month of the quarter has proven to be the most difficult to forecast over time but the incremental data flow over the past month suggests the industry is reaching a bottom. • However, on the revenue side, we point out that there is more uncertainty in our estimate than usual due to the fact that companies have switched over to SAB 101. Since billings (revenues) are recorded upon acceptance under SAB 101, rather than shipment, they differ from the actual shipment number. While some companies are reporting shipment numbers to SEMI for the monthly book to bill calculation, others companies are reporting SAB 101 revenues. We think this makes the actual book to bill an even worse indicator of business and stock performance. Thus, we encourage investors to focus more on orders.

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (57754)	1/14/2002 1:30:12 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

AMAT YoYo Demo --- Paid Analysts like Niles who not too long ago said SEMIs will take 2 years to recover and SEMI-EQUIPs therefore have 3 years --- seems to be changing their tunes silently. Just like I commented before, he has at least 2 years to be proven right but he could be proven wrong earlier than that. To borrow Paul Vs style of describing the ZigZaging AMAT : --- Paid Analysts Flop when they expect to Fiip and they Flip when they expect to Flop. I'm getting signs that this time around is going to be a multi-year Bull Market. Last time it happened was from 1990 to 1995. So I'll dabble on 2004 Calls as I unwind those APRs and 2003 LEAPs. I can only sympathize with those who heeded the calls of Analysts who convinced them to sell their fine Investments. Either they have to wait probably until 2005 to re-enter the market or they do it now or a bit later at higher prices. 1/14/02 Bought AMAT 10 Calls Jan 80 @ 6.00/sh