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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (14157)	12/19/2001 3:33:07 PM
From: Win Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hey! The last ABM test was "surprisingly successful". All we got to do is convince any potential adversary to put GPS transponders in their missiles, and there'll be no problem.

To: tekboy who wrote (14157)	12/19/2001 5:29:13 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

JDSU will reach new highs before we have a working national missile defense... tb@happytobet.com And Social Security will be bankrupt well before Star Wars can remove its diapers and stand.

To: tekboy who wrote (14157)	12/19/2001 5:59:24 PM
From: MSI	Respond to of 281500

LOL! I didn't say "working", you did... That's why the qualifiers and quotes in my previous comments. Like other such projects it will be implemented before it "works", since a real test is nearly impossible. This may be before or after the timeframe you mention -- and like JDSU, will be more profitable in theory than practice. (Which is fine when you think about it, since we don't exactly want to practice Armaggedon - it's been the theoretical that has kept enemies from launching missiles.) Purely a hunch, tho', based on forces involved, money, politics, and particularly technology, including directed-beam weapons. These forces won't be denied even if peace breaks out in a big way.

To: tekboy who wrote (14157)	12/19/2001 9:16:55 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

JDSU will reach new highs before we have a working national missile defense... How do you define working? If you mean a defense capable of shooting down all or almost all of a massive (hundreds or thousands of ICBMs and SLBMs) attack then maybe you are right (its possible that neither will happen this decade or next or the one after that). If you mean a defense capable of shooting down one ICBM or destroying the MIRV warheads from one ICBM then I think it is rather unlikely. OT - What an example of the bubble - siliconinvestor.com Tim

To: tekboy who wrote (14157)	12/19/2001 9:47:44 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

um, let me put it this way: JDSU will reach new highs before we have a working national missile defense... I'll certainly take your side on that one. John

To: tekboy who wrote (14157)	12/20/2001 2:22:06 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Depends on how you define "working".. :0) If we had taken this approach with the proximity fuse being 100% effective, it would never have been developed. Early versions were only 50% effective, but that was still 50% more effective than timed fuses they normally used when engaging attacking aircraft with AAA. By 1944, they had worked out the bugs to such a degree that they could then incorporate it into artillery shells, which then enabled US artillery spotters to call down devastatingly effective airburst barrages upon the enemy. So the real question is whether deploying such a missile defense system will provide "reasonable defense" which translates into tremendous deterrence. I don't have to shoot down 100% of your missiles in order to make you think twice about your chances of successfully launching against the US mainland. But of course, this does nothing for smuggled WMD, including biological and chemical. One of the things I've always feared is that those oceans, which provide such a great obstacle to a successful invasion of the US, also provide a wonderful ability to devastate us with a biological attack, while suffering little collateral damage to other continental populationss. In such a circumstance the entire American continent would be quarantined by the Europeans and Asians. Hawk