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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RR who wrote (45390)12/19/2001 9:02:23 PM
From: Mannie  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Thanks Ranger,

Yep, I know you well enough that I probably could have written that response for you.

My hats off to you again, at being so nimble to be able play the swings so well. I guess valuation does matter to me, and my style.

I play the tides, you play the waves. This thing is going to have to pull back pretty good before I feel comfortable putting my cash back to work in equities, with my skill set.

I salute you my friend.
Scott



To: RR who wrote (45390)12/20/2001 5:30:23 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
The Pentagon is in good hands

By: George Will
Syndicated Columnist
December 20, 2001

WASHINGTON--Recoiling from the carnage of the static warfare of 1914-18, a few French officers, including a young major named de Gaulle, argued that tanks were going to be crucial in the mobile warfare for which Germany was preparing. However, French military leaders were averse to change. Patrician cavalry officers said, ``Oil is dirty, dung is not,'' and one general said tanks would require mechanics, many of whom would be communists. The price of such obduracy was paid in 1940, when the Wehrmacht required just six weeks to roll from the Rhine to the Champs Elysees.

America's prompt, effective projection of power into Central Asia proves that the military has hardly been resting on its Cold War laurels. Still, Donald Rumsfeld agreed to a second stint as secretary of defense because he is determined to change the military's institutional culture. For people averse to change, he is a nightmare: He is wealthy and almost 70, so he does not need this job and is not auditioning for any other. He wants to do something, not just be something.

His televised media briefings, which the president reportedly watches, have made him akin to a movie star--George Clooney in government--but last summer critics in the Pentagon were referring to him as Rip Van Rummy, implying he had slept through the 24 years since he left the Pentagon. Actually, he spent those years successfully running large corporations in a rapidly changing business environment and thinking about the nation's rapidly changing security environment.

Another thinker is the man he chose for a third tour at the Pentagon, Paul Wolfowitz, who was undersecretary for policy under the first President Bush and had been dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. Looking beyond the current crisis, Wolfowitz, now deputy secretary of defense, speaks of three ``transformation goals'' to avoid ``creating the conditions for the Pearl Harbor of the next decade.'' Those goals are to protect our own information networks from attack and to be able to attack those of adversaries; ``to leverage information technology to enhance joint operational capabilities''; and ``to maintain unhindered access to space and protect the infrastructure that supports our critical space capabilities.''

Achieving those goals will be expensive, but so are nasty surprises. As Wolfowitz says, who knew six months ago that billions would be needed to conduct combat operations in Asia while ``a large fraction of our surveillance assets and combat air patrol aircraft were engaged over the United States.'' And in addition to the loss of life, economic losses because of Sept. 11 are ``in the hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars.'' So Americans should have ``a new perspective on the issue of what is affordable.''

Besides, precision munitions illustrate the way smarter forces can be smaller forces. In World War II about one bomb in 400 landed close enough even to affect--not necessarily destroy--its target. Now, often nine out of 10 do. The numbers of planes and pilots and the amount of logistical support can decrease as effectiveness increases.

But institutional predispositions can be impediments. The Air Force reportedly has purchased fewer Predators--the small unmanned crafts that provide real-time intelligence that makes air and ground forces ``smarter''--than are needed, partly because they do not require pilots. And in all the services there are stubborn constituencies for so-called ``legacy programs''--those already in place or authorized--irrespective of changes in the threat assessment that might originally have justified them.

The Army, particularly, must become more agile, flexible and ``expeditionary,'' meaning more like the Marines. Army bases are called forts--Benning, Hood, Bragg, etc. The Marines call their bases camps--Lejeune, Pendleton--to make a point: Marines can be, as their song says, ``first to fight'' because they can, so to speak, quickly strike camp and be off.

Finally, Rumsfeld reportedly considers space an underexploited asset as a vantage point from which to project power onto the earth's surface. It probably will be possible someday for technology in space to find, illuminate and perhaps destroy targets--ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, planes. In any case, it not an accident that the man who became chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff after Rumsfeld became secretary, Gen. Richard Myers, spent 19 months as head of Space Command.

The Pentagon has its share of inner rivalries and institutional inertia. But with Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Myers and kindred spirits making the menu of defense policies, the nation should be protected from the kind of military failure that can be called French toast.

©2001 Washington Post Writers Group



To: RR who wrote (45390)12/20/2001 5:59:10 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
QQQ's Upside Break Has Good Support

worldlyinvestor.com



To: RR who wrote (45390)12/20/2001 6:41:36 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
House passes GOP stimulus bill

Senate Democrats resist Bush pressure
By William L. Watts, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:50 AM ET Dec. 20, 2001

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The House approved a Republican-sponsored, $150 billion fiscal stimulus bill, but prospects for an economic rescue package appeared doubtful as the GOP and Senate Democrats remained far apart over how to shore up health benefits for the unemployed.

The modified package passed the GOP-controlled House 224-193 early Thursday. But it would likely need to gain 60 votes in the Senate, where Democrats hold a one-seat advantage, to overcome procedural objections.

Earlier, President Bush announced during a rare Capitol Hill meeting with lawmakers that he had reached an agreement with Senate centrists, including three Democrats, which guaranteed more than 50 votes for a revised Republican stimulus plan. Watch President Bush.

"This bill will pass the House. It's got enough votes to pass the Senate," Bush said. "And therefore, I look forward to working with both bodies in any way I can to convince those who are reluctant to get a bill done, that this makes sense for American."

The bare-knuckle political move by Bush culminated a two-week White House effort to pressure Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., into setting a vote for the Republican plan. But Daschle said the GOP plan doesn't have enough votes to pass the Senate.

"There's no deal yet that has 60 votes," Daschle said.

Republicans acknowledged it would be difficult to gather 60 votes in the upper chamber.

Weeks of bicameral, bipartisan negotiations ground to a halt Tuesday night after lawmakers were unable to overcome disagreements on how to help unemployed persons pay for health insurance. Lawmakers spent much of Wednesday trading blame for the impasse.

Daschle said Republicans have failed to "negotiate seriously" on health benefits. "To date they have been unwilling to accept even a modicum of change, even some degree of limited help for these unemployed workers in both unemployment compensation as well as health care."

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas, R-Calif., who chaired the stimulus negotiations, said Republicans had accommodated a number of Democratic demands on corporate tax relief and other areas and significantly boosted their original health care and unemployment compensation proposals.

"Compromise means that each side gives. Republicans have given a lot, but our Democratic colleagues have given very little," Thomas said in remarks prepared for delivery on the House floor.

The House Republican package sweetens the GOP's original offer of a 60 percent refundable tax credit that unemployed persons could use to pay for health premiums. Republicans added $4.6 billion in grants to boost state spending on health care costs - a move designed to appease worried state governors and boost Senate Democratic enthusiasm for the legislation.

Democrats are seeking a federal subsidy that would cover 75 percent of an unemployed worker's health insurance premiums under COBRA, a law that allows people who lose or leave their jobs to continue to pay for employer-provided insurance.

They contend the GOP tax-credit proposal would leave many workers facing potentially sky-high premiums or rejection for pre-existing conditions.

"Our problem is that we do not believe the mechanisms that they've suggested will be effective in actually getting the help to the people who need it on a timely basis," said House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt, D-Mo.

Republicans argue that their plan would give unemployed workers more choice, but that persons whose employers offered health insurance would still be able to use COBRA. Those whose former employers didn't offer health insurance would also receive help.

"If you want some other kind of insurance than what your old employer provided, we think you should have that choice. But the Democrats don't," Thomas said.

The House measure would also cut the 27 percent personal income tax rate to 25 percent in 2002, accelerating a rate cut currently scheduled to take effect in 2006. The bracket covers income between $27,950 and $67,700 for individuals, and between $46,700 and $112,850 for married couples.

Bicameral talks since the beginning of the month had produced agreement on a number of issues, but the disagreement over health benefits derailed negotiations Tuesday night.

The House bill includes a number of provisions that House-Senate negotiators had agreed to, including a 13-week extension of unemployment benefits and rebates of up to $300 for low-income working Americans who didn't qualify for income-tax rebates earlier this year.

The bill would allow businesses to take a 30 percent depreciation bonus for purchases of capital items over the next three years and will let companies use current losses to cut tax bills from the past five years.

The House legislation backs away from a controversial proposal in an early GOP bill that would have retroactively repealed the corporate alternative minimum tax and refunded billions of dollars in credits accumulated over the past 15 years by some of the nation's biggest corporations.

The new bill offers a more limited repeal that Republicans said was designed to ensure that the depreciation bonus and other tax credits weren't negated by the AMT.

The package would cost the Treasury around $87 billion in fiscal 2002 in reduced revenues and additional spending. The 10-year cost would be $150 billion.

Financial markets gyrated amid temporary confusion over the status of the stimulus talks Wednesday morning. Bonds initially sank after Bush said he had reached a deal, but then rallied after Daschle said there was no agreement. Bond analysts said worries a stimulus package could boost federal deficits accounted for the moves.

Some analysts on Wednesday were still holding out hope for an agreement but warned that negotiations could drag on at least until the weekend.

"It's inconceivable to me that this whole thing could fall apart over how you disburse health benefits," said Gregory Valliere, a policy analyst at Schwab Capital Markets' Washington Research Group.

Valliere predicted Republicans would eventually give ground out of fear that an impasse would signal that Democrats have the ability to thwart Bush's economic proposals.

"That would be a signal that Democrats could have their way with most of Bush's economic proposals for the next three years," Valliere said. "Republicans know that."
___________________
William L. Watts is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com.



To: RR who wrote (45390)12/20/2001 2:20:00 PM
From: RR  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Laggard? Who wants a laggard? Ya'll know I've been playing options in de ole laggard JNJ. Non-tech, boring, doesn't move much, folks say, but check out some of its April call options. They've doubled in 6 trading days.

Doubles are nice.

Not bad for a slow moving turtle.....

RR